Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hiroki Moriya, while the market favors Alex Bolt (79%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hiroki Moriya (44%) · Hiroki Moriya at 21¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17

Hiroki Moriya21¢Alex Bolt79¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hiroki Moriya

Consensus Traders

Hiroki Moriya 44%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$58.57

Smart Money Entry

27.6¢ → 21¢

-24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidHiroki Moriya at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hiroki Moriya

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Alex Bolt 79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hiroki Moriya21%

Alex Bolt79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hiroki Moriya4 traders

Total Value$646.79

Total Shares2,106

Combined PnL+$52.39

Alex Bolt5 traders

Total Value$382.53

Total Shares516

Combined PnL+$6.18

Hiroki Moriya — 44%Alex Bolt — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Hiroki Moriyaavg 27.8¢	$552.9	$600.24	+$53.38	48% 206-226 (432)
FL Flaznorp	Alex Boltavg 71.1¢	$301.81	$307.68	+$5.87	50% 1375-1392 (2767)
tradecraft<$100	Alex Boltavg 85¢	$55.25	$55.57	+$0.32	14% 93-562 (655)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 29¢	$31.6	$31	-$0.6	15% 58-325 (383)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 20¢	$12	$11.7	-$0.3	24% 204-632 (836)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Alex Boltavg 70¢	$9.89	$9.82	-$0.07	34% 161-312 (473)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Alex Boltavg 85¢	$5.95	$5.98	+$0.03	53% 49-43 (92)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 22¢	$3.94	$3.85	-$0.09	56% 3774-2942 (6716)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Alex Boltavg 69¢	$3.45	$3.47	+$0.02	22% 133-482 (615)

VeryLucky888CTR

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$552.9

Value

$600.24

PnL

+$53.38

Record

48%

206-226 (432)

Flaznorp

Alex Bolt

Invested

$301.81

Value

$307.68

PnL

+$5.87

Record

50%

1375-1392 (2767)

tradecraft<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$55.25

Value

$55.57

PnL

+$0.32

Record

14%

93-562 (655)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$31.6

Value

$31

PnL

-$0.6

Record

15%

58-325 (383)

VenusianCTR<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$12

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

24%

204-632 (836)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$9.89

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$0.07

Record

34%

161-312 (473)

Eulhunter<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$5.95

Value

$5.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

49-43 (92)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$3.94

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.09

Record

56%

3774-2942 (6716)

ameisgoat11<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.02

Record

22%

133-482 (615)

Research grade

AvoidHiroki Moriya at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hiroki Moriya

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Alex Bolt 79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hiroki Moriya wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.9%

21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$337.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

437.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.