Lima: Thiago Monteiro vs Filip Misolic

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Filip Misolic (76%) · Filip Misolic at 62¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 17

Thiago Monteiro39¢Filip Misolic61¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Filip Misolic

Consensus Traders

Filip Misolic 76%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$111.08

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 61.5¢

-8% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralFilip Misolic at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Misolic

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Thiago Monteiro39%

Filip Misolic62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Filip Misolic13 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,188

Combined PnL-$208.09

Thiago Monteiro4 traders

Total Value$650.16

Total Shares2,062

Combined PnL+$97.01

Filip Misolic — 76%Thiago Monteiro — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Filip Misolic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFilip Misolic 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFilip Misolic 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedFilip Misolic 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Filip Misolic 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Filip Misolicavg 78¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$253.87	25% 215-633 (848)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Thiago Monteiroavg 22.9¢	$360.2	$400.92	+$40.72	51% 3162-3063 (6225)
FL Flaznorp	Filip Misolicavg 51.1¢	$332.14	$384.04	+$51.9	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
TH thestingsnake	Filip Misolicavg 69.5¢	$253.85	$228.13	-$25.72	18% 72-338 (410)
38 38791873984189	Filip Misolicavg 45.6¢	$139.73	$203.25	+$63.52	48% 859-937 (1796)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Thiago Monteiroavg 30.9¢	$221	$198.7	+$53.69	37% 70-118 (188)
OM omnibus-076daa	Filip Misolicavg 54.4¢	$105.12	$73.5	-$31.62	37% 191-330 (521)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Thiago Monteiroavg 39.1¢	$43.81	$48.23	+$4.42	56% 3797-2958 (6755)
VeryLucky888<$100	Filip Misolicavg 56¢	$58.8	$47.25	-$11.55	49% 231-239 (470)
BA babybells<$100	Filip Misolicavg 43.9¢	$29.29	$30.01	+$0.72	18% 78-366 (444)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Filip Misolicavg 38¢	$21.69	$25.69	+$4	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
PA Pan9X<$100	Filip Misolicavg 56¢	$17.36	$13.95	-$3.41	48% 421-450 (871)
machinelearned<$100	Filip Misolicavg 40¢	$9.38	$10.56	+$1.17	35% 335-614 (949)
LI LightParadox<$100	Filip Misolicavg 74¢	$10.9	$9.06	-$1.84	25% 214-643 (857)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Thiago Monteiroavg 59¢	$4.13	$2.31	-$1.82	14% 73-461 (534)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Filip Misolicavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.25	-$0.55	24% 157-504 (661)
0xheavy888<$100	Filip Misolicavg 56¢	$2.56	$1.74	-$0.82	55% 106-86 (192)

MadridTime

Filip Misolic

Invested

$1,277.53

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$253.87

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

6512395314597884CTR

Thiago Monteiro

Invested

$360.2

Value

$400.92

PnL

+$40.72

Record

51%

3162-3063 (6225)

Flaznorp

Filip Misolic

Invested

$332.14

Value

$384.04

PnL

+$51.9

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

thestingsnake

Filip Misolic

Invested

$253.85

Value

$228.13

PnL

-$25.72

Record

18%

72-338 (410)

38791873984189

Filip Misolic

Invested

$139.73

Value

$203.25

PnL

+$63.52

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

thirdt1meCTR

Thiago Monteiro

Invested

$221

Value

$198.7

PnL

+$53.69

Record

37%

70-118 (188)

omnibus-076daa

Filip Misolic

Invested

$105.12

Value

$73.5

PnL

-$31.62

Record

37%

191-330 (521)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Thiago Monteiro

Invested

$43.81

Value

$48.23

PnL

+$4.42

Record

56%

3797-2958 (6755)

VeryLucky888<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$58.8

Value

$47.25

PnL

-$11.55

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

babybells<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$29.29

Value

$30.01

PnL

+$0.72

Record

18%

78-366 (444)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$21.69

Value

$25.69

PnL

+$4

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

Pan9X<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$17.36

Value

$13.95

PnL

-$3.41

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

machinelearned<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$9.38

Value

$10.56

PnL

+$1.17

Record

35%

335-614 (949)

LightParadox<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$10.9

Value

$9.06

PnL

-$1.84

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Thiago Monteiro

Invested

$4.13

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$1.82

Record

14%

73-461 (534)

ameisgoat11<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.55

Record

24%

157-504 (661)

0xheavy888<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$2.56

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$0.82

Record

55%

106-86 (192)

Research grade

NeutralFilip Misolic at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Misolic

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Filip Misolic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFilip Misolic 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFilip Misolic 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedFilip Misolic 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Filip Misolic 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Filip Misolic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.