Costa do Sauipe: Thiago Monteiro vs Marco Cecchinato

25 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Marco Cecchinato (78%) · Marco Cecchinato at 100¢ · $174K held · ends Nov 12

Thiago Monteiro<1¢Marco Cecchinato>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Marco Cecchinato

Consensus Traders

Marco Cecchinato 78%

Total Value

$173.7K

Combined PnL

$38.0K

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 100¢

+76% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

NeutralMarco Cecchinato at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marco Cecchinato

25 of 32 top traders (78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thiago Monteiro0%

Marco Cecchinato100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marco Cecchinato25 traders

Total Value$172.6K

Total Shares172,701

Combined PnL+$39.9K

Thiago Monteiro7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares5,894

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Marco Cecchinato — 78%Thiago Monteiro — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

24 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Marco Cecchinato. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMarco Cecchinato 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpMarco Cecchinato 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMarco Cecchinato 68% · 19

Aligned

Hand-pickedMarco Cecchinato 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Marco Cecchinato 80% · 30

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Marco Cecchinatoavg 59.5¢	$52.0K	$70.7K	+$18.7K	42% 8009-11197 (19206)
RN1	Marco Cecchinatoavg 46.5¢	$20.9K	$34.1K	+$13.2K	53% 61386-53697 (115083)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Marco Cecchinatoavg 46.9¢	$26.4K	$29.3K	+$2.9K	46% 1544-1820 (3364)
LI Limousin	Marco Cecchinatoavg 69.3¢	$6.5K	$8.3K	+$1.8K	53% 1439-1280 (2719)
65 6512395314597884	Marco Cecchinatoavg 63.8¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$87.54	51% 4770-4632 (9402)
LI LightParadox	Marco Cecchinatoavg 73.8¢	$4.5K	$5.5K	+$1.0K	52% 1388-1305 (2693)
FL Flaznorp	Marco Cecchinatoavg 62¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	-$540.51	51% 25776-24479 (50255)
VE Venusian	Marco Cecchinatoavg 85.1¢	$3.2K	$3.6K	+$426.01	51% 1392-1360 (2752)
38 38791873984189	Marco Cecchinatoavg 64.5¢	$6.9K	$2.8K	+$866.33	48% 61202-65999 (127201)
MR MrBently	Marco Cecchinatoavg 67.9¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	+$638.24	52% 599-543 (1142)
TH thestingsnake	Marco Cecchinatoavg 65.6¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$513.01	60% 4458-2974 (7432)
SE sentrio	Marco Cecchinatoavg 71.1¢	$786.82	$1.1K	-$50.59	50% 25837-25546 (51383)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Thiago Monteiroavg 37.3¢	$2.1K	$858.44	$-1.3K	50% 1337-1318 (2655)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Marco Cecchinatoavg 67.1¢	$485.24	$496.84	+$11.6	52% 14506-13188 (27694)
EU Eulhunter	Marco Cecchinatoavg 64.8¢	$423.2	$399.02	-$24.17	54% 6288-5349 (11637)
1L 1lovejump	Marco Cecchinatoavg 66.8¢	$1.4K	$174.46	+$74.13	53% 794-712 (1506)
OM omnibus-076daa	Marco Cecchinatoavg 74.9¢	$152.01	$158.6	+$40.66	50% 21199-21466 (42665)
LI Lilybaeum	Marco Cecchinatoavg 42.3¢	$79.06	$157.17	+$78.11	61% 14368-9297 (23665)
tradecraft	Marco Cecchinatoavg 47.6¢	$64.27	$134.93	+$70.66	51% 6358-6140 (12498)
PA pauleta23	Marco Cecchinatoavg 62.5¢	$75.01	$119.92	+$44.91	66% 24278-12377 (36655)
VeryLucky888CTR	Thiago Monteiroavg 56¢	$585.82	$104.57	-$308.13	58% 46718-33677 (80395)
TRCM	Marco Cecchinatoavg 78.9¢	$107.65	$99.98	-$7.66	55% 4064-3278 (7342)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Marco Cecchinatoavg 57.7¢	$48.44	$83.96	+$35.52	57% 19347-14320 (33667)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Thiago Monteiroavg 51¢	$291.24	$79.95	-$211.29	48% 5445-5956 (11401)
PA Pan9X<$100	Marco Cecchinatoavg 43¢	$13.33	$26.04	+$0	54% 9742-8135 (17877)

ferrariChampions2026

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$52,013.84

Value

$70.7K

PnL

+$18.7K

Record

42%

8009-11197 (19206)

RN1

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$20,885.73

Value

$34.1K

PnL

+$13.2K

Record

53%

61386-53697 (115083)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$26,422.68

Value

$29.3K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

46%

1544-1820 (3364)

Limousin

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$6,501.61

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

53%

1439-1280 (2719)

6512395314597884

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$6,426.87

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$87.54

Record

51%

4770-4632 (9402)

LightParadox

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$4,494.26

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

52%

1388-1305 (2693)

Flaznorp

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$5,022.79

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$540.51

Record

51%

25776-24479 (50255)

Venusian

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$3,192.11

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$426.01

Record

51%

1392-1360 (2752)

38791873984189

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$6,939.19

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$866.33

Record

48%

61202-65999 (127201)

MrBently

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$2,695.85

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$638.24

Record

52%

599-543 (1142)

thestingsnake

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$1,860.86

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$513.01

Record

60%

4458-2974 (7432)

sentrio

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$786.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$50.59

Record

50%

25837-25546 (51383)

MadridTimeCTR

Thiago Monteiro

Invested

$2,123.45

Value

$858.44

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

1337-1318 (2655)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$485.24

Value

$496.84

PnL

+$11.6

Record

52%

14506-13188 (27694)

Eulhunter

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$423.2

Value

$399.02

PnL

-$24.17

Record

54%

6288-5349 (11637)

1lovejump

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$1,425.74

Value

$174.46

PnL

+$74.13

Record

53%

794-712 (1506)

omnibus-076daa

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$152.01

Value

$158.6

PnL

+$40.66

Record

50%

21199-21466 (42665)

Lilybaeum

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$79.06

Value

$157.17

PnL

+$78.11

Record

61%

14368-9297 (23665)

tradecraft

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$64.27

Value

$134.93

PnL

+$70.66

Record

51%

6358-6140 (12498)

pauleta23

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$75.01

Value

$119.92

PnL

+$44.91

Record

66%

24278-12377 (36655)

VeryLucky888CTR

Thiago Monteiro

Invested

$585.82

Value

$104.57

PnL

-$308.13

Record

58%

46718-33677 (80395)

TRCM

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$107.65

Value

$99.98

PnL

-$7.66

Record

55%

4064-3278 (7342)

BillBenter2026<$100

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$48.44

Value

$83.96

PnL

+$35.52

Record

57%

19347-14320 (33667)

SlickRick123CTR

Thiago Monteiro

Invested

$291.24

Value

$79.95

PnL

-$211.29

Record

48%

5445-5956 (11401)

Pan9X<$100

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$13.33

Value

$26.04

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

9742-8135 (17877)

Research grade

NeutralMarco Cecchinato at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Marco Cecchinato

25 of 32 top traders (78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

24 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Marco Cecchinato. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMarco Cecchinato 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpMarco Cecchinato 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMarco Cecchinato 68% · 19

Aligned

Hand-pickedMarco Cecchinato 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Marco Cecchinato 80% · 30

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marco Cecchinato wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.