Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Johannus Monday, while the market favors Georgii Kravchenko (55%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hersonissos 3: Johannus Monday vs Georgii Kravchenko

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Johannus Monday (63%) · Johannus Monday at 46¢ · $659 held · ends Nov 16

Johannus Monday46¢Georgii Kravchenko54¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Johannus Monday

Consensus Traders

Johannus Monday 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$658.94

Combined PnL

-$13.03

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 45.5¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJohannus Monday at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Johannus Monday

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Georgii Kravchenko 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Johannus Monday46%

Georgii Kravchenko55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Johannus Monday5 traders

Total Value$326.59

Total Shares723

Combined PnL-$13.17

Georgii Kravchenko3 traders

Total Value$21.18

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$0.14

Johannus Monday — 63%Georgii Kravchenko — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Johannus Monday. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJohannus Monday 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrGeorgii Kravchenko 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedJohannus Monday 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Johannus Monday 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 44.9¢	$260.21	$311.17	-$0.49	50% 24077-24172 (48249)
└ Johannus Monday leg	Johannus Mondayavg 44.9¢	$215.55	$223.23	+$2.83
└ Georgii Kravchenko leg	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 52.2¢	$83.54	$87.93	-$3.33
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Johannus Mondayavg 49¢	$118.44	$108.77	-$8.46	50% 3068-3022 (6090)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 46.2¢	$85.13	$82.85	+$0.92	46% 2665-3073 (5738)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 48.6¢	$73.12	$68.47	-$4.65	56% 8974-7089 (16063)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 45¢	$40.36	$40.81	+$0.45	45% 2644-3186 (5830)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 49.2¢	$28.12	$25.7	-$1.43	46% 2566-3072 (5638)
VeryLucky888<$100	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 54¢	$17.61	$17.77	+$0.16	58% 53643-38159 (91802)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 55¢	$2.7	$2.68	-$0.03	53% 14808-13030 (27838)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 55.2¢	$0.73	$0.73	+$0.01	52% 49211-46180 (95391)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$260.21

Value

$311.17

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

24077-24172 (48249)

Both legs:

Johannus Monday$215.5544.9¢+$2.83

Georgii Kravchenko$83.5452.2¢-$3.33

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Johannus Monday

Invested

$118.44

Value

$108.77

PnL

-$8.46

Record

50%

3068-3022 (6090)

LimousinCTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$85.13

Value

$82.85

PnL

+$0.92

Record

46%

2665-3073 (5738)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$73.12

Value

$68.47

PnL

-$4.65

Record

56%

8974-7089 (16063)

VenusianCTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$40.36

Value

$40.81

PnL

+$0.45

Record

45%

2644-3186 (5830)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$28.12

Value

$25.7

PnL

-$1.43

Record

46%

2566-3072 (5638)

VeryLucky888<$100

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$17.61

Value

$17.77

PnL

+$0.16

Record

58%

53643-38159 (91802)

ameisgoat11<$100

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

14808-13030 (27838)

Flaznorp<$100

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.73

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

49211-46180 (95391)

Research grade

NeutralJohannus Monday at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Johannus Monday

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Georgii Kravchenko 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Johannus Monday. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJohannus Monday 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrGeorgii Kravchenko 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedJohannus Monday 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Johannus Monday 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Johannus Monday wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.