Monastir: Marvin Moeller vs Aziz Ouakaa

8 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Marvin Moeller (36%) · Marvin Moeller at 70¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 19

Marvin Moeller70¢Aziz Ouakaa30¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Marvin Moeller

Consensus Traders

Marvin Moeller 36%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$9.36

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 69.5¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMarvin Moeller at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marvin Moeller

8 of 22 top traders (36%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Marvin Moeller70%

Aziz Ouakaa31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marvin Moeller8 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,129

Combined PnL-$43.39

Aziz Ouakaa14 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares7,412

Combined PnL+$52.75

Marvin Moeller — 36%Aziz Ouakaa — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR prabam	Marvin Moelleravg 65¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$15	— 10-7 (17)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 64¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.61	50% 3536-3500 (7036)
└ Marvin Moeller leg	Marvin Moelleravg 64¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$8.92
└ Aziz Ouakaa leg	Aziz Ouakaaavg 35¢	$468.33	$475.02	+$6.69
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Aziz Ouakaaavg 49.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$26	54% 427-363 (790)
└ Marvin Moeller leg	Marvin Moelleravg 50¢	$525	$714	+$189
└ Aziz Ouakaa leg	Aziz Ouakaaavg 49.2¢	$615	$400	-$215
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Aziz Ouakaaavg 37.9¢	$931.21	$696.45	-$21.18	47% 327-367 (694)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 63.3¢	$545.04	$530.81	-$14.23	56% 3895-3063 (6958)
└ Marvin Moeller leg	Marvin Moelleravg 63.3¢	$334.49	$367.08	+$32.6
└ Aziz Ouakaa leg	Aziz Ouakaaavg 39.2¢	$210.55	$163.72	-$46.83
nigiri99CTR	Aziz Ouakaaavg 26¢	$348.92	$476.41	+$127.49	52% 350-326 (676)
VE VenusianCTR	Aziz Ouakaaavg 25¢	$309.09	$438.15	+$129.06	32% 536-1124 (1660)
0xheavy888	Marvin Moelleravg 74¢	$415.85	$382.13	-$33.72	54% 272-234 (506)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Aziz Ouakaaavg 30.7¢	$336.06	$332.1	-$3.96	33% 556-1107 (1663)
└ Aziz Ouakaa leg	Aziz Ouakaaavg 30.7¢	$171.03	$178.38	+$7.35
└ Marvin Moeller leg	Marvin Moelleravg 73¢	$165.03	$153.73	-$11.3
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Aziz Ouakaaavg 33.9¢	$560.66	$306.98	-$27.83	45% 155-193 (348)
└ Aziz Ouakaa leg	Aziz Ouakaaavg 33.9¢	$220.31	$230.98	-$8.99
└ Marvin Moeller leg	Marvin Moelleravg 63.8¢	$75.19	$75.99	-$18.84
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Aziz Ouakaaavg 38.1¢	$353.14	$296.28	-$56.86	51% 2054-1966 (4020)
38 38791873984189CTR	Aziz Ouakaaavg 45¢	$422.02	$223.81	-$93.3	48% 2125-2324 (4449)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Aziz Ouakaaavg 40.8¢	$222.78	$175.86	-$46.92	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
EU Eulhunter	Marvin Moelleravg 56.6¢	$144.33	$172.12	+$27.79	50% 135-134 (269)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Aziz Ouakaaavg 38.5¢	$153.85	$140.2	-$13.65	27% 155-429 (584)
└ Aziz Ouakaa leg	Aziz Ouakaaavg 38.5¢	$115.5	$96	-$19.5
└ Marvin Moeller leg	Marvin Moelleravg 59¢	$38.35	$44.2	+$5.85
DA darkumbreon88	Marvin Moelleravg 74¢	$116.55	$107.1	-$9.45	61% 956-608 (1564)
SU suntori<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 73¢	$95.23	$84.14	-$11.09	47% 1541-1714 (3255)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Aziz Ouakaaavg 26¢	$69.81	$80.55	+$10.74	57% 13-10 (23)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Aziz Ouakaaavg 28.7¢	$63.45	$70.71	+$7.26	33% 533-1106 (1639)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Aziz Ouakaaavg 40.8¢	$118.24	$67.79	-$15.44	30% 168-395 (563)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Aziz Ouakaaavg 35¢	$43.95	$48.88	+$4.93	42% 664-906 (1570)
└ Marvin Moeller leg	Marvin Moelleravg 53¢	$21.2	$25.8	+$4.6
└ Aziz Ouakaa leg	Aziz Ouakaaavg 35¢	$22.75	$23.08	+$0.32
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 72¢	$19.2	$20	+$0.8	82% 369-79 (448)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 73.3¢	$11	$9.68	-$1.32	26% 178-519 (697)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 75¢	$10	$8.6	-$1.4	47% 95-107 (202)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Aziz Ouakaaavg 29.2¢	$7.61	$8.35	+$0.74	33% 551-1131 (1682)

prabam

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$1,950

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$15

Record

—

10-7 (17)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$1,616

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.61

Record

50%

3536-3500 (7036)

Both legs:

Marvin Moeller$1,147.6764¢+$8.92

Aziz Ouakaa$468.3335¢+$6.69

NotJumpARB<$100

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$1,140

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$26

Record

54%

427-363 (790)

Both legs:

Marvin Moeller$52550¢+$189

Aziz Ouakaa$61549.2¢-$215

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$931.21

Value

$696.45

PnL

-$21.18

Record

47%

327-367 (694)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$545.04

Value

$530.81

PnL

-$14.23

Record

56%

3895-3063 (6958)

Both legs:

Marvin Moeller$334.4963.3¢+$32.6

Aziz Ouakaa$210.5539.2¢-$46.83

nigiri99CTR

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$348.92

Value

$476.41

PnL

+$127.49

Record

52%

350-326 (676)

VenusianCTR

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$309.09

Value

$438.15

PnL

+$129.06

Record

32%

536-1124 (1660)

0xheavy888

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$415.85

Value

$382.13

PnL

-$33.72

Record

54%

272-234 (506)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$336.06

Value

$332.1

PnL

-$3.96

Record

33%

556-1107 (1663)

Both legs:

Aziz Ouakaa$171.0330.7¢+$7.35

Marvin Moeller$165.0373¢-$11.3

thirdt1meARB<$100

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$560.66

Value

$306.98

PnL

-$27.83

Record

45%

155-193 (348)

Both legs:

Aziz Ouakaa$220.3133.9¢-$8.99

Marvin Moeller$75.1963.8¢-$18.84

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$353.14

Value

$296.28

PnL

-$56.86

Record

51%

2054-1966 (4020)

38791873984189CTR

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$422.02

Value

$223.81

PnL

-$93.3

Record

48%

2125-2324 (4449)

FlaznorpCTR

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$222.78

Value

$175.86

PnL

-$46.92

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

Eulhunter

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$144.33

Value

$172.12

PnL

+$27.79

Record

50%

135-134 (269)

babybellsARB<$100

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$153.85

Value

$140.2

PnL

-$13.65

Record

27%

155-429 (584)

Both legs:

Aziz Ouakaa$115.538.5¢-$19.5

Marvin Moeller$38.3559¢+$5.85

darkumbreon88

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$116.55

Value

$107.1

PnL

-$9.45

Record

61%

956-608 (1564)

suntori<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$95.23

Value

$84.14

PnL

-$11.09

Record

47%

1541-1714 (3255)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$69.81

Value

$80.55

PnL

+$10.74

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

LimousinCTR<$100

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$63.45

Value

$70.71

PnL

+$7.26

Record

33%

533-1106 (1639)

thestingsnakeCTR

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$118.24

Value

$67.79

PnL

-$15.44

Record

30%

168-395 (563)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$43.95

Value

$48.88

PnL

+$4.93

Record

42%

664-906 (1570)

Both legs:

Marvin Moeller$21.253¢+$4.6

Aziz Ouakaa$22.7535¢+$0.32

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$19.2

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.8

Record

82%

369-79 (448)

BillBenter2026<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$11

Value

$9.68

PnL

-$1.32

Record

26%

178-519 (697)

glennyorkshire<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$10

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$1.4

Record

47%

95-107 (202)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$7.61

Value

$8.35

PnL

+$0.74

Record

33%

551-1131 (1682)

Research grade

NeutralMarvin Moeller at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Marvin Moeller

8 of 22 top traders (36%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marvin Moeller wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.