Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Marvin Moeller, while the market favors Kilian Feldbausch (67%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Monastir: Marvin Moeller vs Kilian Feldbausch

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Marvin Moeller (89%) · Marvin Moeller at 34¢ · $273 held · ends Nov 22

Marvin Moeller34¢Kilian Feldbausch66¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Marvin Moeller

Consensus Traders

Marvin Moeller 89%

Total Value

$273.26

Combined PnL

-$1.22

Smart Money Entry

33.5¢ → 33.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMarvin Moeller at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marvin Moeller

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Kilian Feldbausch 67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Marvin Moeller34%

Kilian Feldbausch67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marvin Moeller8 traders

Total Value$264.77

Total Shares796

Combined PnL-$1.53

Kilian Feldbausch1 trader

Total Value$8.49

Total Shares13

Combined PnL+$0.32

Marvin Moeller — 89%Kilian Feldbausch — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Marvin Moeller. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMarvin Moeller 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Marvin Moeller 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Marvin Moelleravg 33¢	$128.68	$130.63	+$1.95	53% 1805-1593 (3398)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 33¢	$55.13	$55.13	+$0	49% 4560-4822 (9382)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 33¢	$44.55	$44.55	+$0	56% 635-502 (1137)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 33¢	$12.38	$12.56	+$0.19	41% 1159-1644 (2803)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 38¢	$10.16	$8.82	-$1.34	37% 1293-2176 (3469)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 64¢	$8.17	$8.49	+$0.32	46% 600-717 (1317)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 40¢	$7.27	$6	-$1.27	38% 1303-2129 (3432)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 38.3¢	$5.92	$5.1	-$0.82	38% 1276-2118 (3394)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 37¢	$2.22	$1.98	-$0.24	35% 612-1116 (1728)

VeryLucky888CTR

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$128.68

Value

$130.63

PnL

+$1.95

Record

53%

1805-1593 (3398)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$55.13

Value

$55.13

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

4560-4822 (9382)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$44.55

Value

$44.55

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

635-502 (1137)

sentrioCTR<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$12.38

Value

$12.56

PnL

+$0.19

Record

41%

1159-1644 (2803)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$10.16

Value

$8.82

PnL

-$1.34

Record

37%

1293-2176 (3469)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$8.17

Value

$8.49

PnL

+$0.32

Record

46%

600-717 (1317)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$7.27

Value

PnL

-$1.27

Record

38%

1303-2129 (3432)

LimousinCTR<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$5.92

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.82

Record

38%

1276-2118 (3394)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$2.22

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.24

Record

35%

612-1116 (1728)

Research grade

NeutralMarvin Moeller at 34%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Marvin Moeller

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Kilian Feldbausch 67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Marvin Moeller. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMarvin Moeller 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Marvin Moeller 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marvin Moeller wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.