Orleans: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Calvin Hemery

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Shintaro Mochizuki (43%) · Shintaro Mochizuki at 77¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 17

Shintaro Mochizuki77¢Calvin Hemery23¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Shintaro Mochizuki

Consensus Traders

Shintaro Mochizuki 43%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

-$493.23

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 76.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralShintaro Mochizuki at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shintaro Mochizuki

3 of 7 top traders (43%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Shintaro Mochizuki77%

Calvin Hemery24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shintaro Mochizuki3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,354

Combined PnL-$82.2

Calvin Hemery4 traders

Total Value$810.94

Total Shares3,334

Combined PnL-$411.03

Shintaro Mochizuki — 43%Calvin Hemery — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Shintaro Mochizuki. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrShintaro Mochizuki 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Shintaro Mochizuki 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 79¢	$8.6K	$7.0K	$-1.6K	54% 1629-1388 (3017)
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 79¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	-$35.01
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 43.4¢	$3.0K	$1.5K	$-1.5K
LI LightParadox	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 76.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$5.01	25% 218-645 (863)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 22¢	$861.23	$1.0K	+$173.6	25% 217-656 (873)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 22¢	$708.08	$788.54	+$80.41
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 46.8¢	$151.96	$245.15	+$93.19
TH thirdt1meCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 34.9¢	$1.3K	$775.22	-$373.05	37% 72-122 (194)
TH thestingsnake	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 64.5¢	$932.24	$744.22	-$72.83	18% 74-342 (416)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 35.8¢	$989.93	$669.52	-$187.78	48% 879-959 (1838)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 35.8¢	$619.04	$371.68	-$272.7
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 56¢	$212.48	$297.84	+$84.92
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 37.9¢	$639.1	$511.04	-$128.06	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 70.8¢	$299.99	$345.41	+$45.42
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 37.9¢	$339.11	$165.63	-$173.48
MA MadridTime	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 80.8¢	$374.01	$359.63	-$14.38	25% 218-637 (855)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 77¢	$289.85	$238.27	-$44.55	25% 216-657 (873)
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 77¢	$194.46	$188.15	-$6.31
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 42¢	$82.56	$50.12	-$38.24
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 78.2¢	$173.45	$161.38	-$12.07	56% 3799-2963 (6762)
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 78.2¢	$127.4	$122.93	-$4.47
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 29.3¢	$46.05	$38.45	-$7.6
machinelearnedARB<$100	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 69.5¢	$114.6	$93.4	-$21.2	36% 344-620 (964)
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 69.5¢	$59.1	$67.15	+$8.05
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 44.4¢	$55.5	$26.25	-$29.25
BA babybellsARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 33.8¢	$147.55	$86.88	-$42.81	18% 80-370 (450)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 33.8¢	$105.03	$66.83	-$49.07
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 54¢	$13.79	$20.05	+$6.26
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 44.5¢	$59.69	$28.14	-$31.55	52% 65-61 (126)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 42¢	$13.02	$6.51	-$6.51	48% 424-451 (875)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 20¢	$1	$1.08	+$0.07	38% 89-147 (236)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$8,579.09

Value

$7.0K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

1629-1388 (3017)

Both legs:

Shintaro Mochizuki$5,531.1279¢-$35.01

Calvin Hemery$3,047.9743.4¢$-1.5K

LightParadox

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$1,534.07

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$5.01

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

LimousinARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$861.23

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$173.6

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$708.0822¢+$80.41

Shintaro Mochizuki$151.9646.8¢+$93.19

thirdt1meCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$1,255.77

Value

$775.22

PnL

-$373.05

Record

37%

72-122 (194)

thestingsnake

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$932.24

Value

$744.22

PnL

-$72.83

Record

18%

74-342 (416)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$989.93

Value

$669.52

PnL

-$187.78

Record

48%

879-959 (1838)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$619.0435.8¢-$272.7

Shintaro Mochizuki$212.4856¢+$84.92

FlaznorpARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$639.1

Value

$511.04

PnL

-$128.06

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

Both legs:

Shintaro Mochizuki$299.9970.8¢+$45.42

Calvin Hemery$339.1137.9¢-$173.48

MadridTime

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$374.01

Value

$359.63

PnL

-$14.38

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

VenusianARB<$100

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$289.85

Value

$238.27

PnL

-$44.55

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

Both legs:

Shintaro Mochizuki$194.4677¢-$6.31

Calvin Hemery$82.5642¢-$38.24

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$173.45

Value

$161.38

PnL

-$12.07

Record

56%

3799-2963 (6762)

Both legs:

Shintaro Mochizuki$127.478.2¢-$4.47

Calvin Hemery$46.0529.3¢-$7.6

machinelearnedARB<$100

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$114.6

Value

$93.4

PnL

-$21.2

Record

36%

344-620 (964)

Both legs:

Shintaro Mochizuki$59.169.5¢+$8.05

Calvin Hemery$55.544.4¢-$29.25

babybellsARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$147.55

Value

$86.88

PnL

-$42.81

Record

18%

80-370 (450)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$105.0333.8¢-$49.07

Shintaro Mochizuki$13.7954¢+$6.26

EulhunterCTR<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$59.69

Value

$28.14

PnL

-$31.55

Record

52%

65-61 (126)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$13.02

Value

$6.51

PnL

-$6.51

Record

48%

424-451 (875)

ojgCTR<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.07

Record

38%

89-147 (236)

Research grade

NeutralShintaro Mochizuki at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Shintaro Mochizuki

3 of 7 top traders (43%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Shintaro Mochizuki. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrShintaro Mochizuki 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Shintaro Mochizuki 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shintaro Mochizuki wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.