Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Geoffrey Blancaneaux, while the market favors Shunsuke Mitsui (56%). 8 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Knoxville: Shunsuke Mitsui vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Geoffrey Blancaneaux (57%) · Geoffrey Blancaneaux at 45¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Shunsuke Mitsui56¢Geoffrey Blancaneaux44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Consensus Traders

Geoffrey Blancaneaux 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$25.96

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 44.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeoffrey Blancaneaux at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Shunsuke Mitsui 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Shunsuke Mitsui56%

Geoffrey Blancaneaux45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Geoffrey Blancaneaux8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,222

Combined PnL-$25.49

Shunsuke Mitsui6 traders

Total Value$68.22

Total Shares99

Combined PnL-$0.47

Geoffrey Blancaneaux — 57%Shunsuke Mitsui — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Geoffrey Blancaneaux. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGeoffrey Blancaneaux 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrShunsuke Mitsui 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Geoffrey Blancaneaux 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeCTR	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 46.8¢	$418.17	$388.65	-$29.52	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
RN1CTR	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 44.6¢	$220	$214.39	-$5.61	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
VE VenusianCTR	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 43.6¢	$117.89	$117.65	-$0.24	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 54.8¢	$103.67	$103.69	+$0.02	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
└ Shunsuke Mitsui leg	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 54.8¢	$66.36	$68.41	+$2.04
└ Geoffrey Blancaneaux leg	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 46¢	$37.31	$35.28	-$2.03
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 42¢	$86.21	$91.25	+$5.04	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 44.2¢	$80.91	$81.38	+$0.47	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 42.4¢	$68.33	$71.65	+$3.31	53% 6779-5930 (12709)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 43¢	$29.56	$30.37	+$0.81	60% 4596-3103 (7699)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 53.4¢	$17.97	$18.22	+$0.26	53% 15510-13744 (29254)
PA Pan9X<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 57¢	$18.08	$17.6	-$0.48	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 57¢	$15.27	$15.47	+$0.2	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
EF efntrick<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 56.4¢	$9.99	$9.74	-$0.25	49% 3723-3946 (7669)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 43¢	$12.51	$5.63	+$0.25	50% 23482-23489 (46971)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 58¢	$4.64	$4.44	-$0.2	57% 20231-15051 (35282)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 55¢	$5	$2.75	+$0	52% 9515-8627 (18142)

MadridTimeCTR

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$418.17

Value

$388.65

PnL

-$29.52

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

RN1CTR

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$220

Value

$214.39

PnL

-$5.61

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

VenusianCTR

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$117.89

Value

$117.65

PnL

-$0.24

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$103.67

Value

$103.69

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Both legs:

Shunsuke Mitsui$66.3654.8¢+$2.04

Geoffrey Blancaneaux$37.3146¢-$2.03

LimousinCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$86.21

Value

$91.25

PnL

+$5.04

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$80.91

Value

$81.38

PnL

+$0.47

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$68.33

Value

$71.65

PnL

+$3.31

Record

53%

6779-5930 (12709)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$29.56

Value

$30.37

PnL

+$0.81

Record

60%

4596-3103 (7699)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$17.97

Value

$18.22

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

15510-13744 (29254)

Pan9X<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$18.08

Value

$17.6

PnL

-$0.48

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

Flaznorp<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$15.27

Value

$15.47

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

efntrick<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.74

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

3723-3946 (7669)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$12.51

Value

$5.63

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

BillBenter2026<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$0.2

Record

57%

20231-15051 (35282)

ameisgoat11<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

Research grade

NeutralGeoffrey Blancaneaux at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Shunsuke Mitsui 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Geoffrey Blancaneaux. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGeoffrey Blancaneaux 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrShunsuke Mitsui 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Geoffrey Blancaneaux 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Geoffrey Blancaneaux wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.