Matsuyama: Ognjen Milic vs Shunsuke Nakagawa

15 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Ognjen Milic (79%) · Ognjen Milic at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 18

Ognjen Milic>99¢Shunsuke Nakagawa<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ognjen Milic

Consensus Traders

Ognjen Milic 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$113.34

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 99.8¢

+8% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralOgnjen Milic at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ognjen Milic

15 of 19 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ognjen Milic100%

Shunsuke Nakagawa0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ognjen Milic15 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares8,473

Combined PnL+$219.4

Shunsuke Nakagawa4 traders

Total Value$73.06

Total Shares2,152

Combined PnL-$106.06

Ognjen Milic — 79%Shunsuke Nakagawa — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Ognjen Milic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOgnjen Milic 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOgnjen Milic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ognjen Milic 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Ognjen Milicavg 93.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$22.22	31% 423-941 (1364)
LI LightParadox	Ognjen Milicavg 94.2¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$59.38	31% 423-938 (1361)
FL Flaznorp	Ognjen Milicavg 95¢	$931.43	$947.33	+$52.26	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
1L 1lovejump	Ognjen Milicavg 93¢	$1.3K	$915.09	+$64.41	10% 12-111 (123)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Ognjen Milicavg 96.1¢	$836.31	$809.33	-$26.98	—
MA MadridTime	Ognjen Milicavg 91.5¢	$765.2	$770.19	+$5	32% 424-920 (1344)
TH thestingsnake	Ognjen Milicavg 78.5¢	$243.28	$309.23	+$65.95	27% 145-385 (530)
LI Limousin	Ognjen Milicavg 81.5¢	$313.22	$266.6	+$2.73	31% 416-938 (1354)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Ognjen Milicavg 76¢	$254.4	$251.69	+$5.49	43% 127-168 (295)
└ Ognjen Milic leg	Ognjen Milicavg 76¢	$143.8	$175.97	+$32.17
└ Shunsuke Nakagawa leg	Shunsuke Nakagawaavg 9.5¢	$102.4	$75.73	-$26.68
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Ognjen Milicavg 91.7¢	$240.23	$242.9	+$2.68	56% 3876-3037 (6913)
RN1	Ognjen Milicavg 96.1¢	$230.81	$223.37	-$7.45	57% 4077-3095 (7172)
tradecraft	Ognjen Milicavg 93¢	$192.51	$192.51	-$0	21% 164-630 (794)
38 38791873984189CTR	Shunsuke Nakagawaavg 6¢	$146.43	$68.67	-$75.95	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
BA babybells<$100	Ognjen Milicavg 84¢	$43.61	$48.29	+$4.67	25% 139-417 (556)
VeryLucky888	Ognjen Milicavg 74.2¢	$138.35	$37.61	+$11.99	51% 505-476 (981)
0xheavy888<$100	Ognjen Milicavg 76¢	$16.93	$20.94	+$4.01	55% 205-165 (370)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Ognjen Milicavg 77¢	$9.99	$12.95	+$2.95	49% 61-64 (125)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Shunsuke Nakagawaavg 6¢	$1.8	$2.1	+$0.3	49% 118-122 (240)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Shunsuke Nakagawaavg 4.4¢	$31.95	$1.8	-$30.15	53% 1860-1677 (3537)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Shunsuke Nakagawaavg 10.7¢	$0.75	$0.49	-$0.26	18% 36-164 (200)

Venusian

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$2,323.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$22.22

Record

31%

423-941 (1364)

LightParadox

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$1,011.32

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$59.38

Record

31%

423-938 (1361)

Flaznorp

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$931.43

Value

$947.33

PnL

+$52.26

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

1lovejump

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$1,270.87

Value

$915.09

PnL

+$64.41

Record

10%

12-111 (123)

CandleHammerDrums

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$836.31

Value

$809.33

PnL

-$26.98

Record

—

MadridTime

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$765.2

Value

$770.19

PnL

+$5

Record

32%

424-920 (1344)

thestingsnake

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$243.28

Value

$309.23

PnL

+$65.95

Record

27%

145-385 (530)

Limousin

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$313.22

Value

$266.6

PnL

+$2.73

Record

31%

416-938 (1354)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$254.4

Value

$251.69

PnL

+$5.49

Record

43%

127-168 (295)

Both legs:

Ognjen Milic$143.876¢+$32.17

Shunsuke Nakagawa$102.49.5¢-$26.68

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$240.23

Value

$242.9

PnL

+$2.68

Record

56%

3876-3037 (6913)

RN1

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$230.81

Value

$223.37

PnL

-$7.45

Record

57%

4077-3095 (7172)

tradecraft

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$192.51

Value

$192.51

PnL

-$0

Record

21%

164-630 (794)

38791873984189CTR

Shunsuke Nakagawa

Invested

$146.43

Value

$68.67

PnL

-$75.95

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

babybells<$100

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$43.61

Value

$48.29

PnL

+$4.67

Record

25%

139-417 (556)

VeryLucky888

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$138.35

Value

$37.61

PnL

+$11.99

Record

51%

505-476 (981)

0xheavy888<$100

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$16.93

Value

$20.94

PnL

+$4.01

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

glennyorkshire<$100

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$9.99

Value

$12.95

PnL

+$2.95

Record

49%

61-64 (125)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Shunsuke Nakagawa

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

118-122 (240)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Shunsuke Nakagawa

Invested

$31.95

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$30.15

Record

53%

1860-1677 (3537)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Shunsuke Nakagawa

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.26

Record

18%

36-164 (200)

Research grade

NeutralOgnjen Milic at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Ognjen Milic

15 of 19 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Ognjen Milic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOgnjen Milic 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOgnjen Milic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ognjen Milic 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ognjen Milic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.