Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Michael Mmoh, while the market favors Daniel Milavsky (72%). 6 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Knoxville: Daniel Milavsky vs Michael Mmoh

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Michael Mmoh (40%) · Michael Mmoh at 28¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 18

Daniel Milavsky72¢Michael Mmoh28¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Michael Mmoh

Consensus Traders

Michael Mmoh 40%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.3K

Combined PnL

$-3.1K

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 28.5¢

-45% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidMichael Mmoh at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Mmoh

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Daniel Milavsky 72%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Daniel Milavsky72%

Michael Mmoh28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michael Mmoh6 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares24,750

Combined PnL$-5.1K

Daniel Milavsky9 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares16,366

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Michael Mmoh — 40%Daniel Milavsky — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Michael Mmoh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Michael Mmoh) and the top 1000 (13 on Daniel Milavsky) disagree here.

sharpMichael Mmoh 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichael Mmoh 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichael Mmoh 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Daniel Milavsky 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Michael Mmohavg 38.5¢	$9.4K	$9.7K	+$288.7	53% 1818-1628 (3446)
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 48¢	$3.4K	$4.9K	+$1.5K
└ Michael Mmoh leg	Michael Mmohavg 38.5¢	$6.0K	$4.7K	$-1.2K
0X 0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918CTR	Michael Mmohavg 51.9¢	$11.0K	$6.0K	$-5.0K	44% 12-15 (27)
JU Justluck9	Daniel Milavskyavg 44.9¢	$2.3K	$3.6K	+$1.4K	4% 7-153 (160)
TH thirdt1me	Daniel Milavskyavg 48¢	$3.6K	$3.4K	+$439.56	42% 114-157 (271)
RE redvinny	Daniel Milavskyavg 70¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$70.05	13% 19-129 (148)
RN1ARB<$100	Michael Mmohavg 51¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$68	57% 4034-3050 (7084)
└ Michael Mmoh leg	Michael Mmohavg 51¢	$1.0K	$920.38	-$122.72
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 40¢	$508.57	$699.28	+$190.71
38 38791873984189CTR	Michael Mmohavg 44.2¢	$1.2K	$909.65	+$81.38	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
VeryLucky888CTR	Michael Mmohavg 59¢	$743.25	$566.88	-$176.36	52% 463-433 (896)
machinelearned	Daniel Milavskyavg 52.3¢	$228.82	$234.32	+$5.5	40% 530-798 (1328)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Michael Mmohavg 49¢	$248.31	$228.04	-$20.27	30% 380-875 (1255)
TH thestingsnake	Daniel Milavskyavg 55.2¢	$168.25	$205.88	+$37.63	25% 128-376 (504)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 47¢	$177.8	$204.7	+$26.9	50% 106-108 (214)
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 47¢	$103.4	$121	+$17.6
└ Michael Mmoh leg	Michael Mmohavg 40¢	$74.4	$83.7	+$9.3
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Michael Mmohavg 47.5¢	$137.53	$133.85	-$3.68	56% 3856-3022 (6878)
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 52.4¢	$66.14	$86.46	+$20.32
└ Michael Mmoh leg	Michael Mmohavg 47.5¢	$71.39	$47.39	-$24.01
BA babybellsARB<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 55¢	$102.25	$67.25	+$1.4	24% 126-410 (536)
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 55¢	$35.75	$35.75	+$0
└ Michael Mmoh leg	Michael Mmohavg 47.5¢	$33.25	$31.5	+$1.4
FL Flaznorp<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 41¢	$49.86	$62.08	+$12.22	51% 1851-1805 (3656)
LI Limousin<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 47.2¢	$35.13	$53.27	+$18.14	30% 378-880 (1258)
MA MadridTime<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 53¢	$23.78	$24.68	+$0.9	31% 384-854 (1238)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 41¢	$10	$17.44	+$7.44	49% 47-48 (95)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Michael Mmohavg 60¢	$4.8	$3.6	-$1.2	23% 143-492 (635)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Michael Mmohavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.45	-$0.5	32% 295-621 (916)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$9,391.67

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$288.7

Record

53%

1818-1628 (3446)

Both legs:

Daniel Milavsky$3,406.6848¢+$1.5K

Michael Mmoh$5,984.9938.5¢$-1.2K

0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918CTR

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$11,000

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

44%

12-15 (27)

Justluck9

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$2,292

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

7-153 (160)

thirdt1me

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$3,648

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$439.56

Record

42%

114-157 (271)

redvinny

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$3,176.62

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$70.05

Record

13%

19-129 (148)

RN1ARB<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$1,551.67

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$68

Record

57%

4034-3050 (7084)

Both legs:

Michael Mmoh$1,043.151¢-$122.72

Daniel Milavsky$508.5740¢+$190.71

38791873984189CTR

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$1,153.79

Value

$909.65

PnL

+$81.38

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

VeryLucky888CTR

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$743.25

Value

$566.88

PnL

-$176.36

Record

52%

463-433 (896)

machinelearned

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$228.82

Value

$234.32

PnL

+$5.5

Record

40%

530-798 (1328)

LightParadoxCTR

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$248.31

Value

$228.04

PnL

-$20.27

Record

30%

380-875 (1255)

thestingsnake

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$168.25

Value

$205.88

PnL

+$37.63

Record

25%

128-376 (504)

EulhunterARB<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$177.8

Value

$204.7

PnL

+$26.9

Record

50%

106-108 (214)

Both legs:

Daniel Milavsky$103.447¢+$17.6

Michael Mmoh$74.440¢+$9.3

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$137.53

Value

$133.85

PnL

-$3.68

Record

56%

3856-3022 (6878)

Both legs:

Daniel Milavsky$66.1452.4¢+$20.32

Michael Mmoh$71.3947.5¢-$24.01

babybellsARB<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$102.25

Value

$67.25

PnL

+$1.4

Record

24%

126-410 (536)

Both legs:

Daniel Milavsky$35.7555¢+$0

Michael Mmoh$33.2547.5¢+$1.4

Flaznorp<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$49.86

Value

$62.08

PnL

+$12.22

Record

51%

1851-1805 (3656)

Limousin<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$35.13

Value

$53.27

PnL

+$18.14

Record

30%

378-880 (1258)

MadridTime<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$23.78

Value

$24.68

PnL

+$0.9

Record

31%

384-854 (1238)

glennyorkshire<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$10

Value

$17.44

PnL

+$7.44

Record

49%

47-48 (95)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$4.8

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$1.2

Record

23%

143-492 (635)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.5

Record

32%

295-621 (916)

Research grade

AvoidMichael Mmoh at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Mmoh

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Daniel Milavsky 72%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Michael Mmoh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Michael Mmoh) and the top 1000 (13 on Daniel Milavsky) disagree here.

sharpMichael Mmoh 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichael Mmoh 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichael Mmoh 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Daniel Milavsky 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michael Mmoh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.