Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kenta Miyoshi, while the market favors Daniel Milavsky (80%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Knoxville: Daniel Milavsky vs Kenta Miyoshi

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Kenta Miyoshi (67%) · Kenta Miyoshi at 20¢ · $592 held · ends Nov 16

Daniel Milavsky80¢Kenta Miyoshi20¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kenta Miyoshi

Consensus Traders

Kenta Miyoshi 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$592.34

Combined PnL

$23.85

Smart Money Entry

27.1¢ → 20¢

-26% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidKenta Miyoshi at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kenta Miyoshi

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Daniel Milavsky 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Daniel Milavsky80%

Kenta Miyoshi20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kenta Miyoshi6 traders

Total Value$316.63

Total Shares914

Combined PnL+$31.28

Daniel Milavsky3 traders

Total Value$43.68

Total Shares71

Combined PnL-$7.43

Kenta Miyoshi — 67%Daniel Milavsky — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 83¢	$232.07	$232.03	-$0.04	—
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 83¢	$166	$164	-$2
└ Kenta Miyoshi leg	Kenta Miyoshiavg 17.5¢	$66.07	$68.03	+$1.96
38 38791873984189CTR	Kenta Miyoshiavg 39.1¢	$138.81	$139.73	+$0.92	—
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 27¢	$44.55	$67.65	+$23.1	—
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 20¢	$51	$49.73	-$1.27	—
FL Flaznorp<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 70.2¢	$40.45	$33.98	-$6.47	—
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 19¢	$32.17	$33.02	+$0.85	—
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 28¢	$17.64	$25.83	+$8.19	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 80¢	$5.4	$5	-$0.4	—
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 66¢	$5.26	$4.7	-$0.56	—
RN1CTR<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 32¢	$1.18	$0.68	-$0.5	—

MadridTimeARB<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$232.07

Value

$232.03

PnL

-$0.04

Record

—

Both legs:

Daniel Milavsky$16683¢-$2

Kenta Miyoshi$66.0717.5¢+$1.96

38791873984189CTR

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$138.81

Value

$139.73

PnL

+$0.92

Record

—

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$44.55

Value

$67.65

PnL

+$23.1

Record

—

LimousinCTR<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$51

Value

$49.73

PnL

-$1.27

Record

—

Flaznorp<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$40.45

Value

$33.98

PnL

-$6.47

Record

—

VenusianCTR<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$32.17

Value

$33.02

PnL

+$0.85

Record

—

EulhunterCTR<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$17.64

Value

$25.83

PnL

+$8.19

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$5.4

Value

PnL

-$0.4

Record

—

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$5.26

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.56

Record

—

RN1CTR<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$0.5

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidKenta Miyoshi at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Kenta Miyoshi

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Daniel Milavsky 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kenta Miyoshi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.