Charlottesville: Daniel Milavsky vs Shunsuke Mitsui

16 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Milavsky (84%) · Daniel Milavsky at 100¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 9

Daniel Milavsky>99¢Shunsuke Mitsui<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniel Milavsky

Consensus Traders

Daniel Milavsky 84%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.5K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Milavsky at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Milavsky

16 of 19 top traders (84%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Daniel Milavsky100%

Shunsuke Mitsui0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniel Milavsky16 traders

Total Value$23.5K

Total Shares25,684

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Shunsuke Mitsui3 traders

Total Value$138.92

Total Shares1,284

Combined PnL-$113.85

Daniel Milavsky — 84%Shunsuke Mitsui — 16%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Daniel Milavsky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDaniel Milavsky 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDaniel Milavsky 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedDaniel Milavsky 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Daniel Milavsky 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Daniel Milavskyavg 75.3¢	$7.6K	$8.4K	+$791.34	51% 313-300 (613)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 67.7¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	-$173.62	52% 5709-5279 (10988)
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 67.7¢	$3.0K	$3.7K	+$690.81
└ Shunsuke Mitsui leg	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 29.4¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$864.43
TH thestingsnake	Daniel Milavskyavg 73.8¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	+$409.68	60% 4159-2787 (6946)
RN1	Daniel Milavskyavg 81¢	$3.1K	$2.6K	-$485.03	54% 58162-50385 (108547)
38 38791873984189	Daniel Milavskyavg 68.2¢	$5.5K	$2.3K	-$463.89	47% 13045-14637 (27682)
LI Limousin	Daniel Milavskyavg 80¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$44.96	53% 341-306 (647)
NO NotJump	Daniel Milavskyavg 65.6¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$314.95	44% 9909-12857 (22766)
FL Flaznorp	Daniel Milavskyavg 59.1¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$350.2	51% 17624-16627 (34251)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 78¢	$848.6	$909.3	+$60.7	54% 334-288 (622)
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 78¢	$646.6	$666.6	+$20
└ Shunsuke Mitsui leg	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 16.3¢	$202	$242.7	+$40.7
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Daniel Milavskyavg 81.9¢	$777.44	$900.2	+$122.76	48% 1155-1270 (2425)
poshposh	Daniel Milavskyavg 48.5¢	$291	$479.7	+$188.7	58% 11446-8297 (19743)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Daniel Milavskyavg 73.4¢	$338.26	$316.45	-$21.81	52% 14041-12795 (26836)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Daniel Milavskyavg 76¢	$217.15	$231.43	+$14.29	59% 30988-21709 (52697)
EU Eulhunter	Daniel Milavskyavg 63.8¢	$148.68	$220.98	+$72.3	54% 5914-4956 (10870)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 66.9¢	$147.45	$148.98	+$1.53	54% 21597-18636 (40233)
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 66.9¢	$87.47	$116.96	+$29.49
└ Shunsuke Mitsui leg	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 19.7¢	$59.99	$32.02	-$27.96
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 19.1¢	$234.08	$128.63	-$105.45	47% 10062-11183 (21245)
VeryLucky888<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 63¢	$29.77	$27.27	-$2.5	58% 43629-31734 (75363)
SE sentrio<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 82¢	$25.44	$14.73	-$10.7	50% 25013-24733 (49746)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 28.8¢	$15.54	$7.44	-$8.11	51% 6161-5875 (12036)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 63¢	$3.15	$2.85	-$0.3	53% 6379-5769 (12148)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 64¢	$5	$2.78	-$0.43	51% 1008-970 (1978)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 63¢	$2.05	$2.1	+$0.05	53% 7649-6917 (14566)

Venusian

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$7,592.35

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$791.34

Record

51%

313-300 (613)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$4,937.81

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$173.62

Record

52%

5709-5279 (10988)

Both legs:

Daniel Milavsky$2,964.367.7¢+$690.81

Shunsuke Mitsui$1,973.5129.4¢-$864.43

thestingsnake

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$3,400.24

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$409.68

Record

60%

4159-2787 (6946)

RN1

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$3,087.46

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$485.03

Record

54%

58162-50385 (108547)

38791873984189

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$5,545.16

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$463.89

Record

47%

13045-14637 (27682)

Limousin

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$1,770.01

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$44.96

Record

53%

341-306 (647)

NotJump

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$1,226.32

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$314.95

Record

44%

9909-12857 (22766)

Flaznorp

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$1,170.18

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$350.2

Record

51%

17624-16627 (34251)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$848.6

Value

$909.3

PnL

+$60.7

Record

54%

334-288 (622)

Both legs:

Daniel Milavsky$646.678¢+$20

Shunsuke Mitsui$20216.3¢+$40.7

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$777.44

Value

$900.2

PnL

+$122.76

Record

48%

1155-1270 (2425)

poshposh

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$291

Value

$479.7

PnL

+$188.7

Record

58%

11446-8297 (19743)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$338.26

Value

$316.45

PnL

-$21.81

Record

52%

14041-12795 (26836)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$217.15

Value

$231.43

PnL

+$14.29

Record

59%

30988-21709 (52697)

Eulhunter

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$148.68

Value

$220.98

PnL

+$72.3

Record

54%

5914-4956 (10870)

cigarettesARB<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$147.45

Value

$148.98

PnL

+$1.53

Record

54%

21597-18636 (40233)

Both legs:

Daniel Milavsky$87.4766.9¢+$29.49

Shunsuke Mitsui$59.9919.7¢-$27.96

topdogbigboiCTR

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$234.08

Value

$128.63

PnL

-$105.45

Record

47%

10062-11183 (21245)

VeryLucky888<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$29.77

Value

$27.27

PnL

-$2.5

Record

58%

43629-31734 (75363)

sentrio<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$25.44

Value

$14.73

PnL

-$10.7

Record

50%

25013-24733 (49746)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$15.54

Value

$7.44

PnL

-$8.11

Record

51%

6161-5875 (12036)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$3.15

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

6379-5769 (12148)

ferdinand2<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$0.43

Record

51%

1008-970 (1978)

ameisgoat11<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

7649-6917 (14566)

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Milavsky at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Milavsky

16 of 19 top traders (84%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Daniel Milavsky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDaniel Milavsky 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDaniel Milavsky 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedDaniel Milavsky 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Daniel Milavsky 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniel Milavsky wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.