Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Lautaro Midon, while the market favors Miguel Tobon (62%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lima: Lautaro Midon vs Miguel Tobon

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Lautaro Midon (75%) · Lautaro Midon at 39¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 18

Lautaro Midon39¢Miguel Tobon61¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lautaro Midon

Consensus Traders

Lautaro Midon 75%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.8K

Combined PnL

-$740.14

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 38.5¢

-32% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralLautaro Midon at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lautaro Midon

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Miguel Tobon 62%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lautaro Midon39%

Miguel Tobon62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miguel Tobon3 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares11,012

Combined PnL+$405.18

Lautaro Midon9 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares15,859

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Miguel Tobon — 25%Lautaro Midon — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Lautaro Midon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLautaro Midon 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLautaro Midon 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedLautaro Midon 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Lautaro Midon 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Miguel Tobonavg 46.2¢	$7.4K	$5.6K	+$186.57	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
RN1CTR	Lautaro Midonavg 63¢	$3.2K	$2.5K	-$655.33	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Lautaro Midonavg 44.1¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$292.32	31% 412-918 (1330)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Lautaro Midonavg 61.2¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$240.83	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
CI cigarettes	Miguel Tobonavg 36¢	$540	$750	+$210	53% 5815-5180 (10995)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 56.3¢	$800.1	$749.27	-$50.83	40% 572-844 (1416)
└ Lautaro Midon leg	Lautaro Midonavg 56.3¢	$520.35	$461.77	-$58.58
└ Miguel Tobon leg	Miguel Tobonavg 48.7¢	$279.75	$287.5	+$7.75
VeryLucky888CTR	Lautaro Midonavg 63.8¢	$1.1K	$734.01	-$199.82	52% 497-452 (949)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Miguel Tobonavg 42.2¢	$851.23	$593.02	+$89.12	27% 143-385 (528)
└ Miguel Tobon leg	Miguel Tobonavg 42.2¢	$303.77	$449.38	+$179.54
└ Lautaro Midon leg	Lautaro Midonavg 57.1¢	$218.74	$143.64	-$90.43
FL FlaznorpCTR	Lautaro Midonavg 59.3¢	$925.79	$567.21	-$247.18	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Lautaro Midonavg 60¢	$360	$300	-$60	31% 410-897 (1307)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Miguel Tobonavg 53.4¢	$188.61	$180.51	-$8.1	56% 3875-3035 (6910)
└ Miguel Tobon leg	Miguel Tobonavg 53.4¢	$102.6	$120.02	+$17.42
└ Lautaro Midon leg	Lautaro Midonavg 53.3¢	$86.01	$60.5	-$25.51
BasquetipsterCTR	Lautaro Midonavg 63¢	$140	$111.11	-$28.89	6% 5-79 (84)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 63¢	$107.72	$94.73	-$10.09	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Lautaro Midon leg	Lautaro Midonavg 63¢	$86.09	$68.32	-$18.01
└ Miguel Tobon leg	Miguel Tobonavg 35¢	$18.49	$26.41	+$7.92
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 56.3¢	$115.48	$62.5	-$15.23	49% 692-733 (1425)
└ Lautaro Midon leg	Lautaro Midonavg 56.3¢	$42.21	$37.5	-$9.73
└ Miguel Tobon leg	Miguel Tobonavg 61¢	$30.5	$25	-$5.5
VE Venusian<$100	Miguel Tobonavg 36.5¢	$23.31	$31.92	+$8.62	31% 410-923 (1333)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 61¢	$31.72	$26	-$5.72	30% 401-920 (1321)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 49.3¢	$8.88	$9	+$0.12	24% 156-502 (658)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$7,399.46

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$186.57

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

RN1CTR

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$3,175.83

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$655.33

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

LightParadoxCTR

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$2,164.48

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$292.32

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

6512395314597884CTR

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$1,320.71

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$240.83

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

cigarettes

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$540

Value

$750

PnL

+$210

Record

53%

5815-5180 (10995)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$800.1

Value

$749.27

PnL

-$50.83

Record

40%

572-844 (1416)

Both legs:

Lautaro Midon$520.3556.3¢-$58.58

Miguel Tobon$279.7548.7¢+$7.75

VeryLucky888CTR

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$1,119.15

Value

$734.01

PnL

-$199.82

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$851.23

Value

$593.02

PnL

+$89.12

Record

27%

143-385 (528)

Both legs:

Miguel Tobon$303.7742.2¢+$179.54

Lautaro Midon$218.7457.1¢-$90.43

FlaznorpCTR

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$925.79

Value

$567.21

PnL

-$247.18

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

MadridTimeCTR

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$360

Value

$300

PnL

-$60

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$188.61

Value

$180.51

PnL

-$8.1

Record

56%

3875-3035 (6910)

Both legs:

Miguel Tobon$102.653.4¢+$17.42

Lautaro Midon$86.0153.3¢-$25.51

BasquetipsterCTR

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$140

Value

$111.11

PnL

-$28.89

Record

5-79 (84)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$107.72

Value

$94.73

PnL

-$10.09

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Lautaro Midon$86.0963¢-$18.01

Miguel Tobon$18.4935¢+$7.92

Pan9XARB<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$115.48

Value

$62.5

PnL

-$15.23

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

Both legs:

Lautaro Midon$42.2156.3¢-$9.73

Miguel Tobon$30.561¢-$5.5

Venusian<$100

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$23.31

Value

$31.92

PnL

+$8.62

Record

31%

410-923 (1333)

LimousinCTR<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$31.72

Value

$26

PnL

-$5.72

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$8.88

Value

PnL

+$0.12

Record

24%

156-502 (658)

Research grade

NeutralLautaro Midon at 39%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Lautaro Midon

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Miguel Tobon 62%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Lautaro Midon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLautaro Midon 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLautaro Midon 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedLautaro Midon 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Lautaro Midon 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lautaro Midon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.