BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Alejandro Tabilo

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Alex Michelsen (50%) · Alex Michelsen at 78¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Alex Michelsen78¢Alejandro Tabilo22¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alex Michelsen

Consensus Traders

Alex Michelsen 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$30.32

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 77.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlex Michelsen at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Michelsen

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alex Michelsen78%

Alejandro Tabilo23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alex Michelsen4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,676

Combined PnL+$16.59

Alejandro Tabilo4 traders

Total Value$651.19

Total Shares2,738

Combined PnL+$13.72

Alex Michelsen — 50%Alejandro Tabilo — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Alex Michelsen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlejandro Tabilo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Alex Michelsen 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Alex Michelsenavg 76.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$16.64	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
DA darkumbreon88	Alex Michelsenavg 76¢	$584.98	$584.98	-$0	61% 935-598 (1533)
GC GC-PCTR	Alejandro Tabiloavg 23¢	$225.41	$230.31	+$4.9	22% 106-387 (493)
NM NM-PCTR	Alejandro Tabiloavg 23¢	$225.41	$230.31	+$4.9	59% 3484-2373 (5857)
VE VenusianCTR	Alejandro Tabiloavg 24¢	$185.93	$189.8	+$3.87	31% 444-971 (1415)
53 0x5375...aeea<$100	Alex Michelsenavg 78¢	$9.36	$9.3	-$0.06	— 1-11 (12)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Alex Michelsenavg 76¢	$1.79	$1.8	+$0.01	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Alejandro Tabiloavg 23¢	$0.71	$0.76	+$0.05	36% 410-719 (1129)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$2,224.73

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$16.64

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

darkumbreon88

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$584.98

Value

$584.98

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

935-598 (1533)

GC-PCTR

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$225.41

Value

$230.31

PnL

+$4.9

Record

22%

106-387 (493)

NM-PCTR

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$225.41

Value

$230.31

PnL

+$4.9

Record

59%

3484-2373 (5857)

VenusianCTR

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$185.93

Value

$189.8

PnL

+$3.87

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

0x5375...aeea<$100

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$9.36

Value

$9.3

PnL

-$0.06

Record

—

1-11 (12)

Flaznorp<$100

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$1.79

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$0.71

Value

$0.76

PnL

+$0.05

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Research grade

NeutralAlex Michelsen at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Michelsen

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Alex Michelsen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlejandro Tabilo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Alex Michelsen 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alex Michelsen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.