BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Alex Michelsen (58%) · Alex Michelsen at 77¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 17

Alex Michelsen77¢Juan Manuel Cerundolo23¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alex Michelsen

Consensus Traders

Alex Michelsen 58%

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

-$16.32

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 76.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlex Michelsen at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Michelsen

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alex Michelsen77%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Manuel Cerundolo5 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares23,663

Combined PnL-$35.75

Alex Michelsen7 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares13,322

Combined PnL+$19.43

Juan Manuel Cerundolo — 42%Alex Michelsen — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 22.6¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$25.9	54% 1605-1351 (2956)
VeryLucky888	Alex Michelsenavg 76.9¢	$4.2K	$3.0K	+$6.89	48% 214-230 (444)
RR rrooster	Alex Michelsenavg 78¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$15	34% 14-27 (41)
0xheavy888	Alex Michelsenavg 78¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$13.33	56% 99-79 (178)
FL Flaznorp	Alex Michelsenavg 77¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$8.74	50% 1383-1403 (2786)
DA darkumbreon88	Alex Michelsenavg 77¢	$858.06	$863.64	+$5.57	61% 891-567 (1458)
38 38791873984189	Alex Michelsenavg 77.5¢	$581.5	$581.25	-$0.25	48% 733-802 (1535)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 22¢	$513.09	$501.43	-$11.66	34% 163-316 (479)
PA Pan9X	Alex Michelsenavg 77.5¢	$127.3	$127.45	+$0.15	48% 407-442 (849)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 22¢	$88	$90	+$2	8% 71-770 (841)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 21¢	$10.5	$10.75	+$0.25	52% 51-47 (98)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 23¢	$10.15	$9.71	-$0.44	8% 35-419 (454)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$4,714.06

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$25.9

Record

54%

1605-1351 (2956)

VeryLucky888

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$4,209.45

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$6.89

Record

48%

214-230 (444)

rrooster

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$2,339.99

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$15

Record

34%

14-27 (41)

0xheavy888

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$2,079.48

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$13.33

Record

56%

99-79 (178)

Flaznorp

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$1,345.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$8.74

Record

50%

1383-1403 (2786)

darkumbreon88

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$858.06

Value

$863.64

PnL

+$5.57

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

38791873984189

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$581.5

Value

$581.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

733-802 (1535)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$513.09

Value

$501.43

PnL

-$11.66

Record

34%

163-316 (479)

Pan9X

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$127.3

Value

$127.45

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

407-442 (849)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$88

Value

$90

PnL

+$2

Record

71-770 (841)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

51-47 (98)

hi774cCTR<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$10.15

Value

$9.71

PnL

-$0.44

Record

35-419 (454)

Research grade

NeutralAlex Michelsen at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Michelsen

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alex Michelsen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.