Champaign: Nicholas Mekhael vs Keshav Chopra

15 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Keshav Chopra (68%) · Keshav Chopra at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Nicholas Mekhael8¢Keshav Chopra92¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Keshav Chopra

Consensus Traders

Keshav Chopra 68%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$16.27

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 92.5¢

+3% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralKeshav Chopra at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Keshav Chopra

15 of 22 top traders (68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nicholas Mekhael8%

Keshav Chopra93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Keshav Chopra15 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,262

Combined PnL+$61.51

Nicholas Mekhael7 traders

Total Value$149.77

Total Shares1,904

Combined PnL-$45.23

Keshav Chopra — 68%Nicholas Mekhael — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Keshav Chopraavg 91.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$8.94	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
TH thestingsnake	Keshav Chopraavg 88.3¢	$542.9	$568.88	+$25.98	37% 272-462 (734)
LI Limousin	Keshav Chopraavg 88.3¢	$428.32	$448.53	+$20.21	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
FL Flaznorp	Keshav Chopraavg 92¢	$465.2	$444.21	-$20.99	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
BA babybells	Keshav Chopraavg 90.4¢	$363.44	$347.9	-$5.11	34% 282-536 (818)
MA MadridTime	Keshav Chopraavg 91.2¢	$268.89	$272.86	+$3.97	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
1L 1lovejump	Keshav Chopraavg 88.3¢	$300.88	$208.5	+$14.1	41% 137-197 (334)
LI LightParadox	Keshav Chopraavg 88¢	$181.1	$190.36	+$9.26	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
tradecraft	Keshav Chopraavg 92¢	$188.6	$189.63	+$1.03	35% 520-949 (1469)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Nicholas Mekhaelavg 9.5¢	$207.13	$134.32	-$45.38	47% 384-428 (812)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Keshav Chopraavg 92¢	$108.2	$108.69	+$0.49	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Keshav Chopraavg 86.5¢	$47.55	$50.88	+$3.32	33% 312-626 (938)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Keshav Chopraavg 84¢	$41.99	$41.99	+$0	47% 684-778 (1462)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Keshav Chopraavg 92¢	$21.16	$21.28	+$0.12	54% 235-202 (437)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Keshav Chopraavg 84¢	$10	$10.06	+$0.06	48% 238-262 (500)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Nicholas Mekhaelavg 13¢	$6.9	$7.16	+$0.27	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Nicholas Mekhaelavg 15¢	$5.29	$5.29	+$0	44% 95-122 (217)
EF efntrick<$100	Keshav Chopraavg 82¢	$4.99	$5.12	+$0.12	46% 121-141 (262)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Nicholas Mekhaelavg 15¢	$1.92	$1.92	-$0	48% 514-565 (1079)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Nicholas Mekhaelavg 11.1¢	$0.68	$0.52	-$0.16	39% 1675-2667 (4342)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Nicholas Mekhaelavg 9¢	$0.45	$0.48	+$0.02	46% 506-602 (1108)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Nicholas Mekhaelavg 6¢	$0.06	$0.08	+$0.02	48% 653-714 (1367)

Venusian

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$1,066.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$8.94

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

thestingsnake

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$542.9

Value

$568.88

PnL

+$25.98

Record

37%

272-462 (734)

Limousin

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$428.32

Value

$448.53

PnL

+$20.21

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

Flaznorp

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$465.2

Value

$444.21

PnL

-$20.99

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

babybells

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$363.44

Value

$347.9

PnL

-$5.11

Record

34%

282-536 (818)

MadridTime

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$268.89

Value

$272.86

PnL

+$3.97

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

1lovejump

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$300.88

Value

$208.5

PnL

+$14.1

Record

41%

137-197 (334)

LightParadox

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$181.1

Value

$190.36

PnL

+$9.26

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

tradecraft

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$188.6

Value

$189.63

PnL

+$1.03

Record

35%

520-949 (1469)

thirdt1meCTR

Nicholas Mekhael

Invested

$207.13

Value

$134.32

PnL

-$45.38

Record

47%

384-428 (812)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$108.2

Value

$108.69

PnL

+$0.49

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

BillBenter2026<$100

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$47.55

Value

$50.88

PnL

+$3.32

Record

33%

312-626 (938)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$41.99

Value

$41.99

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

684-778 (1462)

Eulhunter<$100

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$21.16

Value

$21.28

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

235-202 (437)

glennyorkshire<$100

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$10

Value

$10.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

238-262 (500)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Nicholas Mekhael

Invested

$6.9

Value

$7.16

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Nicholas Mekhael

Invested

$5.29

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

95-122 (217)

efntrick<$100

Keshav Chopra

Invested

$4.99

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

46%

121-141 (262)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Nicholas Mekhael

Invested

$1.92

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

514-565 (1079)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Nicholas Mekhael

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$0.16

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Nicholas Mekhael

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$0.02

Record

46%

506-602 (1108)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Nicholas Mekhael

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

653-714 (1367)

Research grade

NeutralKeshav Chopra at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Keshav Chopra

15 of 22 top traders (68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Keshav Chopra wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.