Knoxville: Nicolas Mejia vs Max Hans Rehberg

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Max Hans Rehberg (38%) · Max Hans Rehberg at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18

Nicolas Mejia38¢Max Hans Rehberg62¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Max Hans Rehberg

Consensus Traders

Max Hans Rehberg 38%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$63.65

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 62.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralMax Hans Rehberg at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Max Hans Rehberg

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nicolas Mejia38%

Max Hans Rehberg63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Max Hans Rehberg3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,457

Combined PnL+$58.56

Nicolas Mejia5 traders

Total Value$297.47

Total Shares683

Combined PnL+$5.09

Max Hans Rehberg — 38%Nicolas Mejia — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Max Hans Rehberg. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Max Hans Rehberg) and the top 1000 (7 on Nicolas Mejia) disagree here.

ctrMax Hans Rehberg 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMax Hans Rehberg 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nicolas Mejia 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Max Hans Rehbergavg 62¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	+$30.54	52% 490-447 (937)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Max Hans Rehbergavg 58¢	$406	$434	+$28	4% 8-201 (209)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Nicolas Mejiaavg 36¢	$195.94	$203.32	+$7.39	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 37¢	$49.23	$48.93	-$0.3	49% 683-724 (1407)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 36¢	$22.93	$23.89	+$0.96	31% 406-905 (1311)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 43¢	$21.88	$18.83	-$3.05	31% 405-886 (1291)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 62¢	$3.1	$3.13	+$0.02	33% 317-631 (948)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 36¢	$2.4	$2.5	+$0.1	30% 399-910 (1309)

VeryLucky888

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$1,759.1

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$30.54

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$406

Value

$434

PnL

+$28

Record

8-201 (209)

FlaznorpCTR

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$195.94

Value

$203.32

PnL

+$7.39

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$49.23

Value

$48.93

PnL

-$0.3

Record

49%

683-724 (1407)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$22.93

Value

$23.89

PnL

+$0.96

Record

31%

406-905 (1311)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$21.88

Value

$18.83

PnL

-$3.05

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

ameisgoat11<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.02

Record

33%

317-631 (948)

LimousinCTR<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

Research grade

NeutralMax Hans Rehberg at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Max Hans Rehberg

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Max Hans Rehberg. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Max Hans Rehberg) and the top 1000 (7 on Nicolas Mejia) disagree here.

ctrMax Hans Rehberg 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMax Hans Rehberg 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nicolas Mejia 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Max Hans Rehberg wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.