Knoxville: Nicolas Mejia vs Jack Kennedy

12 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Mejia (60%) · Nicolas Mejia at 79¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 16

Nicolas Mejia79¢Jack Kennedy21¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nicolas Mejia

Consensus Traders

Nicolas Mejia 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.3K

Combined PnL

$-3.0K

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 78.5¢

+24% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Mejia at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Mejia

12 of 20 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nicolas Mejia79%

Jack Kennedy22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nicolas Mejia12 traders

Total Value$31.6K

Total Shares40,952

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Jack Kennedy8 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares48,955

Combined PnL$-6.1K

Nicolas Mejia — 60%Jack Kennedy — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Nicolas Mejiaavg 66.9¢	$10.4K	$12.0K	+$1.6K	30% 105-246 (351)
RN1	Nicolas Mejiaavg 58.3¢	$10.3K	$11.8K	+$1.5K	54% 233-201 (434)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Jack Kennedyavg 39.4¢	$8.5K	$5.1K	$-3.3K	26% 87-252 (339)
VE VenusianCTR	Jack Kennedyavg 27.4¢	$2.2K	$3.3K	+$1.1K	23% 82-268 (350)
38 38791873984189	Nicolas Mejiaavg 59.6¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	+$695.36	49% 383-404 (787)
TH thirdt1me	Nicolas Mejiaavg 61.8¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	-$567.54	0% 0-34 (34)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Jack Kennedyavg 43.6¢	$4.0K	$2.2K	$-1.9K	25% 86-262 (348)
LI LimousinCTR	Jack Kennedyavg 42.9¢	$3.4K	$1.6K	$-1.8K	24% 90-282 (372)
FL Flaznorp	Nicolas Mejiaavg 80.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$77.42	52% 242-224 (466)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 61.5¢	$435.19	$441.64	+$6.45	39% 41-64 (105)
└ Nicolas Mejia leg	Nicolas Mejiaavg 61.5¢	$275.82	$343.05	+$67.23
└ Jack Kennedy leg	Jack Kennedyavg 38¢	$159.36	$98.58	-$60.78
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Jack Kennedyavg 45.1¢	$711.37	$438.66	-$215.96	25% 37-109 (146)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Jack Kennedyavg 18.8¢	$376.3	$349.53	-$26.76	5% 4-76 (80)
0xheavy888	Nicolas Mejiaavg 63.8¢	$200.07	$159.9	-$46.44	69% 29-13 (42)
BA babybells	Nicolas Mejiaavg 68.6¢	$205.75	$153	-$52.75	0% 0-93 (93)
CI cigarettes	Nicolas Mejiaavg 72¢	$144	$141	-$3	38% 93-154 (247)
EU EulhunterCTR	Jack Kennedyavg 27¢	$76.55	$139.08	+$62.54	55% 34-28 (62)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 67.2¢	$113.77	$105.38	-$8.4	44% 148-190 (338)
└ Nicolas Mejia leg	Nicolas Mejiaavg 67.2¢	$67.2	$59.5	-$7.7
└ Jack Kennedy leg	Jack Kennedyavg 41.1¢	$46.57	$45.88	-$0.7
OJ ojgCTR	Jack Kennedyavg 53¢	$186.85	$71.3	-$115.55	33% 48-99 (147)
LR lryyy<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 47¢	$41.36	$44.88	+$3.52	57% 43-32 (75)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 74¢	$76.11	$37.22	-$15.2	20% 38-153 (191)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 75.2¢	$36.1	$36.72	+$0.62	14% 30-180 (210)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 63.5¢	$5.3	$5.1	-$0.2	18% 42-190 (232)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$10,373.77

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

RN1

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$10,289.77

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

LightParadoxCTR

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$8,469.99

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

VenusianCTR

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$2,209.17

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

38791873984189

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$3,235.71

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$695.36

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

thirdt1me

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$3,243.84

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$567.54

Record

0-34 (34)

MadridTimeCTR

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$4,038.54

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

LimousinCTR

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$3,396

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

24%

90-282 (372)

Flaznorp

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$1,448.22

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$77.42

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$435.19

Value

$441.64

PnL

+$6.45

Record

39%

41-64 (105)

Both legs:

Nicolas Mejia$275.8261.5¢+$67.23

Jack Kennedy$159.3638¢-$60.78

thestingsnakeCTR

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$711.37

Value

$438.66

PnL

-$215.96

Record

25%

37-109 (146)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$376.3

Value

$349.53

PnL

-$26.76

Record

4-76 (80)

0xheavy888

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$200.07

Value

$159.9

PnL

-$46.44

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

babybells

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$205.75

Value

$153

PnL

-$52.75

Record

0-93 (93)

cigarettes

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$144

Value

$141

PnL

-$3

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

EulhunterCTR

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$76.55

Value

$139.08

PnL

+$62.54

Record

55%

34-28 (62)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$113.77

Value

$105.38

PnL

-$8.4

Record

44%

148-190 (338)

Both legs:

Nicolas Mejia$67.267.2¢-$7.7

Jack Kennedy$46.5741.1¢-$0.7

ojgCTR

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$186.85

Value

$71.3

PnL

-$115.55

Record

33%

48-99 (147)

lryyy<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$41.36

Value

$44.88

PnL

+$3.52

Record

57%

43-32 (75)

SchruteBucks<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$76.11

Value

$37.22

PnL

-$15.2

Record

20%

38-153 (191)

BillBenter2026<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$36.1

Value

$36.72

PnL

+$0.62

Record

14%

30-180 (210)

ameisgoat11<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

18%

42-190 (232)

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Mejia at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Mejia

12 of 20 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nicolas Mejia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.