Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Koki Matsuda, while the market favors Niels McDonald (53%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Koki Matsuda (17%) · Koki Matsuda at 48¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Koki Matsuda
6
Koki Matsuda 17%
$6.5K
$25.82
Research grade
NeutralKoki Matsuda at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Niels McDonald 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Koki Matsuda. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR | Koki Matsudaavg 46.4¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$78.42 | — |
FL Flaznorp | Niels McDonaldavg 53.4¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$33.54 | — |
 VeryLucky888 | Niels McDonaldavg 54¢ | $567 | $556.5 | -$10.5 | — |
SE sentrio | Niels McDonaldavg 53.4¢ | $438.49 | $431.09 | -$7.39 | — |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Niels McDonaldavg 54¢ | $45 | $23.63 | -$0.68 | — |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Niels McDonaldavg 54¢ | $18.23 | $17.72 | -$0.51 | — |
Invested
$3,396.2
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$78.42
Record
—
Invested
$1,981.63
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$33.54
Record
—
VeryLucky888Invested
$567
Value
$556.5
PnL
-$10.5
Record
—
Invested
$438.49
Value
$431.09
PnL
-$7.39
Record
—
Invested
$45
Value
$23.63
PnL
-$0.68
Record
—
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$18.23
Value
$17.72
PnL
-$0.51
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.