Brisbane 3: James McCabe vs Jan Kumstat
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jan Kumstat (67%) · Jan Kumstat at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Jan Kumstat
6
Jan Kumstat 67%
$2.2K
$40.6
64.7¢ → 64.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJan Kumstat at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Jan Kumstat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Jan Kumstatavg 65¢ | $842.4 | $842.4 | -$0 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | James McCabeavg 33.8¢ | $810.91 | $587.5 | +$32.28 | 51% 299-291 (590) |
 0xheavy888 | Jan Kumstatavg 64¢ | $477.56 | $485.03 | +$7.46 | 55% 119-96 (215) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Jan Kumstatavg 65¢ | $253.1 | $253.1 | +$0 | 61% 900-577 (1477) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Jan Kumstatavg 64.7¢ | $31.71 | $31.85 | +$0.14 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | James McCabeavg 34¢ | $24.51 | $25.23 | +$0.72 | 28% 278-703 (981) |
Invested
$842.4
Value
$842.4
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$810.91
Value
$587.5
PnL
+$32.28
Record
51%
299-291 (590)
0xheavy888Invested
$477.56
Value
$485.03
PnL
+$7.46
Record
55%
119-96 (215)
Invested
$253.1
Value
$253.1
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
900-577 (1477)
Invested
$31.71
Value
$31.85
PnL
+$0.14
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
Invested
$24.51
Value
$25.23
PnL
+$0.72
Record
28%
278-703 (981)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.