Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Michael Mmoh, while the market favors Aidan Mayo (53%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Knoxville: Aidan Mayo vs Michael Mmoh
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Michael Mmoh (60%) · Michael Mmoh at 48¢ · $49 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Michael Mmoh
5
Michael Mmoh 60%
$49.37
-$0.16
Research grade
NeutralMichael Mmoh at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Aidan Mayo 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Michael Mmoh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Michael Mmohavg 48.8¢ | $26.93 | $26.23 | -$0.7 | 47% 71-79 (150) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Michael Mmohavg 46¢ | $10.11 | $10.44 | +$0.33 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Aidan Mayoavg 52¢ | $6.7 | $6.72 | +$0.01 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Michael Mmohavg 45¢ | $3.18 | $3.36 | +$0.18 | 37% 198-333 (531) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Aidan Mayoavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.63 | +$0.02 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
Invested
$26.93
Value
$26.23
PnL
-$0.7
Record
47%
71-79 (150)
Invested
$10.11
Value
$10.44
PnL
+$0.33
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$6.72
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$3.18
Value
$3.36
PnL
+$0.18
Record
37%
198-333 (531)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.63
PnL
+$0.02
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.