Champaign: Lui Maxted vs Tom Hands

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Lui Maxted (50%) · Lui Maxted at 94¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 22

Lui Maxted94¢Tom Hands6¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lui Maxted

Consensus Traders

Lui Maxted 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$305.37

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 94.3¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLui Maxted at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lui Maxted

7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lui Maxted94%

Tom Hands6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lui Maxted7 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares10,550

Combined PnL+$201.86

Tom Hands7 traders

Total Value$321.59

Total Shares3,858

Combined PnL+$103.52

Lui Maxted — 50%Tom Hands — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-62 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Lui Maxted. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTom Hands 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Tom Hands 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Lui Maxtedavg 89.8¢	$6.1K	$6.3K	+$180.7	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
38 38791873984189	Lui Maxtedavg 95.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$1.8	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
TH thirdt1me	Lui Maxtedavg 95.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.64	47% 383-426 (809)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Tom Handsavg 10.2¢	$889.48	$714.12	-$175.36	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
└ Tom Hands leg	Tom Handsavg 10.2¢	$692.18	$505.67	-$186.51
└ Lui Maxted leg	Lui Maxtedavg 87.6¢	$197.3	$208.45	+$11.15
RN1	Lui Maxtedavg 88.3¢	$414.59	$425.77	+$11.18	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 95.5¢	$166.23	$214.31	+$48.08	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
└ Lui Maxted leg	Lui Maxtedavg 95.5¢	$115.8	$108.45	-$7.35
└ Tom Hands leg	Tom Handsavg 5¢	$50.43	$105.86	+$55.43
BA babybells	Lui Maxtedavg 96¢	$366.86	$204.79	-$8.49	35% 282-533 (815)
LI LimousinCTR	Tom Handsavg 4.2¢	$98.3	$191.16	+$92.87	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Lui Maxtedavg 92¢	$140.84	$146.65	+$5.82	48% 651-710 (1361)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Tom Handsavg 8.9¢	$39.98	$42.7	+$2.72	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Tom Handsavg 4¢	$22.54	$42.54	+$20	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Tom Handsavg 5¢	$26.6	$21.28	-$5.32	51% 204-197 (401)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Tom Handsavg 5¢	$12.5	$10	-$2.5	46% 121-141 (262)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 94¢	$9.4	$9.6	+$0.2	37% 270-460 (730)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Tom Handsavg 5.3¢	$12.18	$9.12	-$3.06	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Tom Handsavg 5¢	$5.97	$4.78	-$1.19	35% 669-1223 (1892)

MadridTime

Lui Maxted

Invested

$6,123.39

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$180.7

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

38791873984189

Lui Maxted

Invested

$1,621.36

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$1.8

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

thirdt1me

Lui Maxted

Invested

$1,202.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.64

Record

47%

383-426 (809)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Tom Hands

Invested

$889.48

Value

$714.12

PnL

-$175.36

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

Both legs:

Tom Hands$692.1810.2¢-$186.51

Lui Maxted$197.387.6¢+$11.15

RN1

Lui Maxted

Invested

$414.59

Value

$425.77

PnL

+$11.18

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$166.23

Value

$214.31

PnL

+$48.08

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Both legs:

Lui Maxted$115.895.5¢-$7.35

Tom Hands$50.435¢+$55.43

babybells

Lui Maxted

Invested

$366.86

Value

$204.79

PnL

-$8.49

Record

35%

282-533 (815)

LimousinCTR

Tom Hands

Invested

$98.3

Value

$191.16

PnL

+$92.87

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

CandleHammerDrums

Lui Maxted

Invested

$140.84

Value

$146.65

PnL

+$5.82

Record

48%

651-710 (1361)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Tom Hands

Invested

$39.98

Value

$42.7

PnL

+$2.72

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

VenusianCTR<$100

Tom Hands

Invested

$22.54

Value

$42.54

PnL

+$20

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Tom Hands

Invested

$26.6

Value

$21.28

PnL

-$5.32

Record

51%

204-197 (401)

efntrickCTR<$100

Tom Hands

Invested

$12.5

Value

$10

PnL

-$2.5

Record

46%

121-141 (262)

thestingsnake<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

37%

270-460 (730)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Tom Hands

Invested

$12.18

Value

$9.12

PnL

-$3.06

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Tom Hands

Invested

$5.97

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$1.19

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

Research grade

NeutralLui Maxted at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lui Maxted

7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-62 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Lui Maxted. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTom Hands 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Tom Hands 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lui Maxted wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.5%

94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.