Knoxville: Lui Maxted vs Hynek Barton

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Lui Maxted (63%) · Lui Maxted at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17

Lui Maxted56¢Hynek Barton44¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lui Maxted

Consensus Traders

Lui Maxted 63%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$54.84

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 56.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLui Maxted at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lui Maxted

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lui Maxted56%

Hynek Barton44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lui Maxted5 traders

Total Value$791.99

Total Shares1,364

Combined PnL+$6.43

Hynek Barton3 traders

Total Value$609.81

Total Shares1,402

Combined PnL+$48.41

Lui Maxted — 63%Hynek Barton — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Lui Maxtedavg 60¢	$400.2	$403.53	+$3.33	56% 99-79 (178)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Hynek Bartonavg 40.2¢	$320.8	$347.54	+$26.74	25% 203-620 (823)
VE VenusianCTR	Hynek Bartonavg 40.8¢	$125.44	$133.82	+$8.38	24% 205-637 (842)
VeryLucky888	Lui Maxtedavg 55.3¢	$134.16	$133.51	+$2.97	48% 214-230 (444)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Hynek Bartonavg 39¢	$115.16	$128.45	+$13.29	1% 2-197 (199)
FL Flaznorp	Lui Maxtedavg 56¢	$125.04	$126.16	+$1.12	50% 1383-1403 (2786)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 52.5¢	$73.64	$72.25	-$1.39	34% 163-316 (479)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 58.1¢	$56.15	$56.54	+$0.4	48% 407-442 (849)

0xheavy888

Lui Maxted

Invested

$400.2

Value

$403.53

PnL

+$3.33

Record

56%

99-79 (178)

MadridTimeCTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$320.8

Value

$347.54

PnL

+$26.74

Record

25%

203-620 (823)

VenusianCTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$125.44

Value

$133.82

PnL

+$8.38

Record

24%

205-637 (842)

VeryLucky888

Lui Maxted

Invested

$134.16

Value

$133.51

PnL

+$2.97

Record

48%

214-230 (444)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$115.16

Value

$128.45

PnL

+$13.29

Record

2-197 (199)

Flaznorp

Lui Maxted

Invested

$125.04

Value

$126.16

PnL

+$1.12

Record

50%

1383-1403 (2786)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$73.64

Value

$72.25

PnL

-$1.39

Record

34%

163-316 (479)

Pan9X<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$56.15

Value

$56.54

PnL

+$0.4

Record

48%

407-442 (849)

Research grade

NeutralLui Maxted at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lui Maxted

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lui Maxted wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.