Kobe: Koki Matsuda vs Shintaro Imai

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Koki Matsuda (57%) · Koki Matsuda at 63¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Koki Matsuda63¢Shintaro Imai37¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Koki Matsuda

Consensus Traders

Koki Matsuda 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$136.17

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 62.5¢

+24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralKoki Matsuda at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Koki Matsuda

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Koki Matsuda63%

Shintaro Imai38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Koki Matsuda8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,271

Combined PnL+$201.29

Shintaro Imai6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,298

Combined PnL-$65.12

Koki Matsuda — 57%Shintaro Imai — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thirdt1me	Koki Matsudaavg 53.7¢	$692.27	$728.71	+$36.44	48% 311-334 (645)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Shintaro Imaiavg 48.1¢	$813.49	$727.51	-$85.98	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 57.9¢	$673.29	$600.31	-$72.99	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
└ Shintaro Imai leg	Shintaro Imaiavg 57.9¢	$526.4	$449.82	-$76.59
└ Koki Matsuda leg	Koki Matsudaavg 49.3¢	$146.89	$150.49	+$3.6
SC SchruteBucks	Koki Matsudaavg 42¢	$387.78	$278.54	+$128.13	27% 188-513 (701)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Shintaro Imaiavg 55.7¢	$194.55	$191.57	-$0.88	34% 225-440 (665)
BA babybells	Koki Matsudaavg 48.5¢	$109.37	$125.84	+$16.47	32% 228-491 (719)
LI LimousinCTR	Shintaro Imaiavg 37¢	$98.25	$122.8	+$24.55	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Koki Matsudaavg 52¢	$85.5	$84.68	-$0.82	56% 4102-3203 (7305)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Koki Matsudaavg 56.9¢	$50.43	$46.6	-$3.83	46% 558-656 (1214)
└ Koki Matsuda leg	Koki Matsudaavg 56.9¢	$27.57	$23.74	-$3.83
└ Shintaro Imai leg	Shintaro Imaiavg 49¢	$22.86	$22.86	+$0
MA MadridTime<$100	Koki Matsudaavg 62¢	$24.1	$24.01	-$0.09	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
PA Pan9X<$100	Koki Matsudaavg 51¢	$20.14	$19.35	-$0.79	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Koki Matsudaavg 49¢	$9.99	$10.4	+$0.41	46% 189-223 (412)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 49¢	$10.29	$10.29	+$0	51% 639-619 (1258)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 57.3¢	$11.45	$8.6	-$2.85	31% 264-597 (861)
FL flatbarrel	Koki Matsudaavg 42¢	$142.87	$5.59	+$21.55	13% 57-384 (441)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 48¢	$2.45	$2.5	+$0.05	37% 1155-1966 (3121)

thirdt1me

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$692.27

Value

$728.71

PnL

+$36.44

Record

48%

311-334 (645)

LightParadoxCTR

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$813.49

Value

$727.51

PnL

-$85.98

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$673.29

Value

$600.31

PnL

-$72.99

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Both legs:

Shintaro Imai$526.457.9¢-$76.59

Koki Matsuda$146.8949.3¢+$3.6

SchruteBucks

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$387.78

Value

$278.54

PnL

+$128.13

Record

27%

188-513 (701)

thestingsnakeCTR

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$194.55

Value

$191.57

PnL

-$0.88

Record

34%

225-440 (665)

babybells

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$109.37

Value

$125.84

PnL

+$16.47

Record

32%

228-491 (719)

LimousinCTR

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$98.25

Value

$122.8

PnL

+$24.55

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$85.5

Value

$84.68

PnL

-$0.82

Record

56%

4102-3203 (7305)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$50.43

Value

$46.6

PnL

-$3.83

Record

46%

558-656 (1214)

Both legs:

Koki Matsuda$27.5756.9¢-$3.83

Shintaro Imai$22.8649¢+$0

MadridTime<$100

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$24.1

Value

$24.01

PnL

-$0.09

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

Pan9X<$100

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$20.14

Value

$19.35

PnL

-$0.79

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

glennyorkshire<$100

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0.41

Record

46%

189-223 (412)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$10.29

Value

$10.29

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$11.45

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$2.85

Record

31%

264-597 (861)

flatbarrel

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$142.87

Value

$5.59

PnL

+$21.55

Record

13%

57-384 (441)

VenusianCTR<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

Research grade

NeutralKoki Matsuda at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Koki Matsuda

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Koki Matsuda wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.