Orleans: Pedro Martinez vs Otto Virtanen

19 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Otto Virtanen (68%) · Otto Virtanen at 91¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 21

Pedro Martinez10¢Otto Virtanen90¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Otto Virtanen

Consensus Traders

Otto Virtanen 68%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 90.5¢

+6% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralOtto Virtanen at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Otto Virtanen

19 of 28 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pedro Martinez10%

Otto Virtanen91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Otto Virtanen19 traders

Total Value$36.9K

Total Shares40,862

Combined PnL+$184.15

Pedro Martinez9 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares28,224

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Otto Virtanen — 68%Pedro Martinez — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Otto Virtanen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Otto Virtanen) and the top 1000 (9 on Pedro Martinez) disagree here.

ctrOtto Virtanen 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOtto Virtanen 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pedro Martinez 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RE redvinny	Otto Virtanenavg 91.8¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	-$23.99	26% 48-138 (186)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Otto Virtanenavg 91¢	$5.5K	$5.6K	+$88.93	48% 517-551 (1068)
VeryLucky888	Otto Virtanenavg 75.7¢	$5.7K	$4.9K	-$90.92	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Otto Virtanenavg 85.5¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$168.72	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
38 38791873984189	Otto Virtanenavg 89¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	+$160.66	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
RN1	Otto Virtanenavg 92¢	$3.3K	$2.9K	-$348.63	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
TH thirdt1me	Otto Virtanenavg 89.2¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	+$85	49% 279-295 (574)
0xheavy888	Otto Virtanenavg 79.7¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$80.17	54% 496-419 (915)
NO NotJump	Otto Virtanenavg 52.8¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	+$90.08	52% 820-759 (1579)
0X 0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR	Pedro Martinezavg 13.9¢	$2.5K	$1.5K	-$947.82	13% 3-21 (24)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Otto Virtanenavg 87.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$28.19	56% 4060-3170 (7230)
LI Limousin	Otto Virtanenavg 84.1¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	+$91.33	36% 933-1644 (2577)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Otto Virtanenavg 92¢	$999.99	$994.56	-$5.43	65% 34-18 (52)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Pedro Martinezavg 8¢	$622.54	$739.27	+$116.73	37% 960-1662 (2622)
BA babybells	Otto Virtanenavg 88.4¢	$646.18	$455.94	+$25.16	30% 206-476 (682)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 73¢	$366.7	$367.96	+$1.26	36% 948-1669 (2617)
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 73¢	$222.9	$282.44	+$59.54
└ Pedro Martinez leg	Pedro Martinezavg 12.6¢	$143.8	$85.52	-$58.29
1L 1lovejump	Otto Virtanenavg 84¢	$336.98	$335.02	-$1.97	39% 124-195 (319)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 82¢	$179.95	$196.9	+$16.94	52% 191-178 (369)
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 82¢	$124.69	$139.18	+$14.49
└ Pedro Martinez leg	Pedro Martinezavg 8.1¢	$55.26	$57.72	+$2.46
EF efntrick	Otto Virtanenavg 77¢	$184.8	$183.6	-$1.2	44% 86-111 (197)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pedro Martinezavg 27¢	$297.76	$183.31	-$114.45	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
VI vibing123	Otto Virtanenavg 72¢	$182.88	$181.61	-$1.27	62% 1134-699 (1833)
EZ EzmoneyfornowCTR	Pedro Martinezavg 27.2¢	$256.23	$98.85	-$157.39	50% 20-20 (40)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Pedro Martinezavg 28.4¢	$132.12	$39.49	-$92.63	37% 970-1635 (2605)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 71.3¢	$23.25	$23.15	-$0.1	44% 372-467 (839)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 77¢	$20	$19.87	-$0.13	44% 161-201 (362)

redvinny

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$6,447.4

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$23.99

Record

26%

48-138 (186)

CandleHammerDrums

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$5,483.81

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$88.93

Record

48%

517-551 (1068)

VeryLucky888

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$5,729.02

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$90.92

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$3,466.6

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$168.72

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

38791873984189

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$3,194.25

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$160.66

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

RN1

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$3,256.17

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$348.63

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

thirdt1me

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$2,676.92

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$85

Record

49%

279-295 (574)

0xheavy888

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$2,017.97

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$80.17

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

NotJump

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$1,924.03

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$90.08

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$2,450

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$947.82

Record

13%

3-21 (24)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$1,216.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$28.19

Record

56%

4060-3170 (7230)

Limousin

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$1,436.63

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$91.33

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$999.99

Value

$994.56

PnL

-$5.43

Record

65%

34-18 (52)

LightParadoxCTR

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$622.54

Value

$739.27

PnL

+$116.73

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

babybells

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$646.18

Value

$455.94

PnL

+$25.16

Record

30%

206-476 (682)

VenusianARB<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$366.7

Value

$367.96

PnL

+$1.26

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

Both legs:

Otto Virtanen$222.973¢+$59.54

Pedro Martinez$143.812.6¢-$58.29

1lovejump

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$336.98

Value

$335.02

PnL

-$1.97

Record

39%

124-195 (319)

EulhunterARB<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$179.95

Value

$196.9

PnL

+$16.94

Record

52%

191-178 (369)

Both legs:

Otto Virtanen$124.6982¢+$14.49

Pedro Martinez$55.268.1¢+$2.46

efntrick

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$184.8

Value

$183.6

PnL

-$1.2

Record

44%

86-111 (197)

FlaznorpCTR

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$297.76

Value

$183.31

PnL

-$114.45

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

vibing123

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$182.88

Value

$181.61

PnL

-$1.27

Record

62%

1134-699 (1833)

EzmoneyfornowCTR

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$256.23

Value

$98.85

PnL

-$157.39

Record

50%

20-20 (40)

MadridTimeCTR

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$132.12

Value

$39.49

PnL

-$92.63

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$23.25

Value

$23.15

PnL

-$0.1

Record

44%

372-467 (839)

glennyorkshire<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$20

Value

$19.87

PnL

-$0.13

Record

44%

161-201 (362)

Research grade

NeutralOtto Virtanen at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Otto Virtanen

19 of 28 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Otto Virtanen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Otto Virtanen) and the top 1000 (9 on Pedro Martinez) disagree here.

ctrOtto Virtanen 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOtto Virtanen 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pedro Martinez 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Otto Virtanen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.