Orleans: Pedro Martinez vs Matteo Martineau

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Matteo Martineau (63%) · Matteo Martineau at 62¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 19

Pedro Martinez39¢Matteo Martineau61¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Matteo Martineau

Consensus Traders

Matteo Martineau 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$48.39

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 61.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMatteo Martineau at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Matteo Martineau

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pedro Martinez39%

Matteo Martineau62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Matteo Martineau5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,275

Combined PnL+$27.98

Pedro Martinez3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,615

Combined PnL-$76.38

Matteo Martineau — 63%Pedro Martinez — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Matteo Martineau. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperPedro Martinez 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMatteo Martineau 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMatteo Martineau 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Matteo Martineau 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Matteo Martineauavg 62¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$19.41	51% 2054-1966 (4020)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Pedro Martinezavg 40¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$64.72	36% 16-29 (45)
VeryLucky888	Matteo Martineauavg 60¢	$1.5K	$615	+$45	52% 754-704 (1458)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Matteo Martineauavg 60¢	$518.65	$529.09	+$10.44	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
└ Matteo Martineau leg	Matteo Martineauavg 60¢	$305.41	$313.05	+$7.64
└ Pedro Martinez leg	Pedro Martinezavg 38¢	$213.23	$216.04	+$2.81
0xheavy888	Matteo Martineauavg 60¢	$213	$122.45	-$0.55	54% 272-234 (506)
0X 0x8e83fae02e603cc2860638315f1c161fde5ab22fCTR	Pedro Martinezavg 42¢	$122.86	$111.16	-$11.7	— 1-0 (1)
EF efntrick	Matteo Martineauavg 60¢	$99	$101.48	+$2.47	43% 65-87 (152)
PA Pan9X<$100	Matteo Martineauavg 60¢	$18.6	$19.07	+$0.46	49% 1071-1127 (2198)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Pedro Martinezavg 38¢	$3.06	$3.1	+$0.04	41% 543-780 (1323)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$2,406.5

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$19.41

Record

51%

2054-1966 (4020)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$1,725.77

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$64.72

Record

36%

16-29 (45)

VeryLucky888

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$1,500

Value

$615

PnL

+$45

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$518.65

Value

$529.09

PnL

+$10.44

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

Both legs:

Matteo Martineau$305.4160¢+$7.64

Pedro Martinez$213.2338¢+$2.81

0xheavy888

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$213

Value

$122.45

PnL

-$0.55

Record

54%

272-234 (506)

0x8e83fae02e603cc2860638315f1c161fde5ab22fCTR

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$122.86

Value

$111.16

PnL

-$11.7

Record

—

1-0 (1)

efntrick

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$99

Value

$101.48

PnL

+$2.47

Record

43%

65-87 (152)

Pan9X<$100

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$18.6

Value

$19.07

PnL

+$0.46

Record

49%

1071-1127 (2198)

sentrioCTR<$100

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.04

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

Research grade

NeutralMatteo Martineau at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Matteo Martineau

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Matteo Martineau. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperPedro Martinez 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMatteo Martineau 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMatteo Martineau 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Matteo Martineau 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Matteo Martineau wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.