Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Hugo Gaston (62%) · Hugo Gaston at 56¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 16

Matteo Martineau44¢Hugo Gaston56¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hugo Gaston

Consensus Traders

Hugo Gaston 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

-$19.54

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 56.5¢

-3% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralHugo Gaston at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hugo Gaston

13 of 21 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Matteo Martineau44%

Hugo Gaston56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hugo Gaston13 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares20,324

Combined PnL+$62.38

Matteo Martineau8 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares9,731

Combined PnL-$81.92

Hugo Gaston — 62%Matteo Martineau — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Hugo Gastonavg 56¢	$4.2K	$4.4K	+$200	50% 3289-3244 (6533)
TH thirdt1me	Hugo Gastonavg 59.4¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$37.61	42% 110-151 (261)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Matteo Martineauavg 46¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$165.47	30% 373-863 (1236)
AC Accomplished-Framework	Hugo Gastonavg 59¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$85.05	— 7-8 (15)
VE Venusian	Hugo Gastonavg 58.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$3.76	30% 379-865 (1244)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Hugo Gastonavg 58.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$14.9	— 4-7 (11)
FL Flaznorp	Hugo Gastonavg 61.7¢	$872.51	$907.85	+$35.33	51% 1833-1786 (3619)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Matteo Martineauavg 41¢	$756.5	$765.73	+$9.23	53% 1799-1610 (3409)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 60¢	$663.94	$656.97	-$6.97	48% 1322-1438 (2760)
└ Hugo Gaston leg	Hugo Gastonavg 60¢	$414.6	$404.23	-$10.37
└ Matteo Martineau leg	Matteo Martineauavg 40.9¢	$249.34	$252.73	+$3.39
VeryLucky888CTR	Matteo Martineauavg 36¢	$996.35	$577.41	+$16.54	51% 446-421 (867)
machinelearnedCTR	Matteo Martineauavg 36.8¢	$448.31	$503.6	+$55.29	39% 499-770 (1269)
TH thestingsnake	Hugo Gastonavg 63.2¢	$659.43	$348.48	-$48.75	24% 119-370 (489)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Matteo Martineauavg 38¢	$147.84	$149.79	+$1.95	31% 378-844 (1222)
BA babybells	Hugo Gastonavg 56.2¢	$103.15	$110.87	+$7.73	23% 120-405 (525)
SE sentrio<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 62¢	$57.75	$59.14	+$1.4	37% 341-573 (914)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Matteo Martineauavg 40.3¢	$48.36	$48.7	+$0.34	56% 3842-3016 (6858)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Matteo Martineauavg 37¢	$37.6	$27.68	+$0.16	48% 662-709 (1371)
TRCM<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 55¢	$11	$11.7	+$0.7	10% 50-429 (479)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 68¢	$4.76	$4.73	-$0.03	22% 134-488 (622)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Matteo Martineauavg 40¢	$4	$4.05	+$0.05	30% 373-867 (1240)
SC SchruteBucks	Hugo Gastonavg 63¢	$136.08	$2.32	-$0.22	22% 139-491 (630)
RN1<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 60¢	$1.5	$1.54	+$0.04	57% 4029-3044 (7073)

6512395314597884

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$4,180

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$200

Record

50%

3289-3244 (6533)

thirdt1me

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$2,530.55

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$37.61

Record

42%

110-151 (261)

LightParadoxCTR

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$2,193.58

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$165.47

Record

30%

373-863 (1236)

Accomplished-Framework

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$2,007.14

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$85.05

Record

—

7-8 (15)

Venusian

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$1,706.54

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$3.76

Record

30%

379-865 (1244)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$14.9

Record

—

4-7 (11)

Flaznorp

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$872.51

Value

$907.85

PnL

+$35.33

Record

51%

1833-1786 (3619)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$756.5

Value

$765.73

PnL

+$9.23

Record

53%

1799-1610 (3409)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$663.94

Value

$656.97

PnL

-$6.97

Record

48%

1322-1438 (2760)

Both legs:

Hugo Gaston$414.660¢-$10.37

Matteo Martineau$249.3440.9¢+$3.39

VeryLucky888CTR

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$996.35

Value

$577.41

PnL

+$16.54

Record

51%

446-421 (867)

machinelearnedCTR

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$448.31

Value

$503.6

PnL

+$55.29

Record

39%

499-770 (1269)

thestingsnake

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$659.43

Value

$348.48

PnL

-$48.75

Record

24%

119-370 (489)

MadridTimeCTR

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$147.84

Value

$149.79

PnL

+$1.95

Record

31%

378-844 (1222)

babybells

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$103.15

Value

$110.87

PnL

+$7.73

Record

23%

120-405 (525)

sentrio<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$57.75

Value

$59.14

PnL

+$1.4

Record

37%

341-573 (914)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$48.36

Value

$48.7

PnL

+$0.34

Record

56%

3842-3016 (6858)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$37.6

Value

$27.68

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

662-709 (1371)

TRCM<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$11

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.7

Record

10%

50-429 (479)

BillBenter2026<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.03

Record

22%

134-488 (622)

LimousinCTR<$100

Matteo Martineau

Invested

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

30%

373-867 (1240)

SchruteBucks

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$136.08

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$0.22

Record

22%

139-491 (630)

RN1<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.04

Record

57%

4029-3044 (7073)

Research grade

NeutralHugo Gaston at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hugo Gaston

13 of 21 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hugo Gaston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.