Knoxville: Andres Martin vs Filip Jeff Planinsek

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Andres Martin (57%) · Andres Martin at 54¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 16

Andres Martin54¢Filip Jeff Planinsek46¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Andres Martin

Consensus Traders

Andres Martin 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.8K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 54.3¢

-43% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralAndres Martin at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Andres Martin

8 of 14 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Andres Martin54%

Filip Jeff Planinsek46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Andres Martin8 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares10,899

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Filip Jeff Planinsek6 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares20,773

Combined PnL+$5.8K

Andres Martin — 57%Filip Jeff Planinsek — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Andres Martin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFilip Jeff Planinsek 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpFilip Jeff Planinsek 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAndres Martin 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Andres Martin 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Andres Martinavg 88.4¢	$6.7K	$5.1K	$-1.6K	45% 2751-3326 (6077)
└ Andres Martin leg	Andres Martinavg 88.4¢	$6.5K	$4.0K	$-2.5K
└ Filip Jeff Planinsek leg	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 6.6¢	$156.32	$1.1K	+$920.53
65 6512395314597884	Andres Martinavg 93.7¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	-$478.08	51% 6120-5875 (11995)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 8.9¢	$1.1K	$3.9K	+$2.8K	47% 2293-2595 (4888)
PA Paul973973	Andres Martinavg 98.2¢	$4.0K	$2.3K	$-1.7K	89% 1167-147 (1314)
LI LimousinCTR	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 5.9¢	$248.37	$1.9K	+$1.7K	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
VE VenusianCTR	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 11.8¢	$394.74	$1.5K	+$1.1K	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Andres Martinavg 93.9¢	$3.5K	$1.4K	-$601.76	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
└ Andres Martin leg	Andres Martinavg 93.9¢	$1.7K	$961.45	-$978.61
└ Filip Jeff Planinsek leg	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 8.6¢	$90.79	$482.67	+$376.85
RN1ARB<$100	Andres Martinavg 71.7¢	$825.23	$767.13	-$58.1	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
└ Andres Martin leg	Andres Martinavg 71.7¢	$514.46	$389.49	-$124.97
└ Filip Jeff Planinsek leg	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 37.6¢	$310.77	$377.64	+$66.87
FL Flaznorp	Andres Martinavg 95.4¢	$900.54	$564.94	-$335.6	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
TH thirdt1me	Andres Martinavg 84.7¢	$521.61	$370.37	+$57.5	58% 237-173 (410)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 10.6¢	$34	$141.83	+$108.23	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
CI cigarettesCTR	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 0.3¢	$0.75	$114.38	+$113.63	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
MA MadridTime	Andres Martinavg 88.6¢	$126.76	$77.59	-$49.17	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Andres Martinavg 89.3¢	$49.1	$45.35	-$3.75	57% 20333-15125 (35458)
TRCM<$100	Andres Martinavg 70.1¢	$4.29	$5.95	+$1.66	55% 4142-3335 (7477)
SE sentrio<$100	Andres Martinavg 65¢	$6	$5.25	+$1.35	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 27¢	$2.21	$1.02	-$1.19	53% 6836-5985 (12821)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$6,658.15

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

Both legs:

Andres Martin$6,501.8488.4¢$-2.5K

Filip Jeff Planinsek$156.326.6¢+$920.53

6512395314597884

Andres Martin

Invested

$4,967.83

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$478.08

Record

51%

6120-5875 (11995)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$1,130.07

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

47%

2293-2595 (4888)

Paul973973

Andres Martin

Invested

$4,003.77

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

89%

1167-147 (1314)

LimousinCTR

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$248.37

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

VenusianCTR

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$394.74

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$3,527.65

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$601.76

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

Both legs:

Andres Martin$1,664.4293.9¢-$978.61

Filip Jeff Planinsek$90.798.6¢+$376.85

RN1ARB<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$825.23

Value

$767.13

PnL

-$58.1

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

Both legs:

Andres Martin$514.4671.7¢-$124.97

Filip Jeff Planinsek$310.7737.6¢+$66.87

Flaznorp

Andres Martin

Invested

$900.54

Value

$564.94

PnL

-$335.6

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

thirdt1me

Andres Martin

Invested

$521.61

Value

$370.37

PnL

+$57.5

Record

58%

237-173 (410)

thestingsnakeCTR

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$34

Value

$141.83

PnL

+$108.23

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

cigarettesCTR

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$0.75

Value

$114.38

PnL

+$113.63

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

MadridTime

Andres Martin

Invested

$126.76

Value

$77.59

PnL

-$49.17

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

BillBenter2026<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$49.1

Value

$45.35

PnL

-$3.75

Record

57%

20333-15125 (35458)

TRCM<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$4.29

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$1.66

Record

55%

4142-3335 (7477)

sentrio<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$1.35

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$2.21

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$1.19

Record

53%

6836-5985 (12821)

Research grade

NeutralAndres Martin at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Andres Martin

8 of 14 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Andres Martin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFilip Jeff Planinsek 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpFilip Jeff Planinsek 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAndres Martin 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Andres Martin 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Andres Martin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.5%

54.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.