Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jordan Lee, while the market favors Andres Martin (92%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Knoxville: Andres Martin vs Jordan Lee

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Jordan Lee (70%) · Jordan Lee at 8.0¢ · $744 held · ends Nov 15

Andres Martin92¢Jordan Lee8¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jordan Lee

Consensus Traders

Jordan Lee 70%

Total Value

$743.73

Combined PnL

-$740.11

Smart Money Entry

19.9¢ → 8¢

-60% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidJordan Lee at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jordan Lee

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Andres Martin 92%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Andres Martin92%

Jordan Lee8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jordan Lee7 traders

Total Value$705.39

Total Shares7,057

Combined PnL-$743.07

Andres Martin3 traders

Total Value$38.35

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$2.96

Jordan Lee — 70%Andres Martin — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Jordan Lee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJordan Lee 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrAndres Martin 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedJordan Lee 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jordan Lee 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LimousinCTR	Jordan Leeavg 20¢	$1.2K	$442.72	-$737.01	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Jordan Leeavg 17¢	$979.63	$184.38	+$15.3	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Jordan Leeavg 34.8¢	$89.69	$72.41	-$17.28	54% 10222-8700 (18922)
RN1<$100	Andres Martinavg 62¢	$13.82	$20.62	+$6.8	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
MA MadridTime<$100	Andres Martinavg 91.5¢	$14.06	$10.26	-$3.8	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Andres Martinavg 60¢	$7.51	$7.47	-$0.05	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Jordan Leeavg 15¢	$2.27	$2.73	+$0.45	53% 6777-5930 (12707)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Jordan Leeavg 27.1¢	$5.52	$1.53	-$3.99	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Jordan Leeavg 28¢	$5	$0.93	-$0.48	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Jordan Leeavg 19¢	$4	$0.7	-$0.06	46% 33351-38883 (72234)

LimousinCTR

Jordan Lee

Invested

$1,179.73

Value

$442.72

PnL

-$737.01

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

LightParadoxCTR

Jordan Lee

Invested

$979.63

Value

$184.38

PnL

+$15.3

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Jordan Lee

Invested

$89.69

Value

$72.41

PnL

-$17.28

Record

54%

10222-8700 (18922)

RN1<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$13.82

Value

$20.62

PnL

+$6.8

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

MadridTime<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$14.06

Value

$10.26

PnL

-$3.8

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$7.51

Value

$7.47

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Jordan Lee

Invested

$2.27

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

6777-5930 (12707)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Jordan Lee

Invested

$5.52

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$3.99

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

VenusianCTR<$100

Jordan Lee

Invested

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.48

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Jordan Lee

Invested

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.06

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Research grade

AvoidJordan Lee at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Jordan Lee

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Andres Martin 92%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Jordan Lee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJordan Lee 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrAndres Martin 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedJordan Lee 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jordan Lee 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jordan Lee wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.