Monastir: Pedro Vives Marcos vs Kilian Feldbausch

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Kilian Feldbausch (43%) · Kilian Feldbausch at 62¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 21

Pedro Vives Marcos39¢Kilian Feldbausch61¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kilian Feldbausch

Consensus Traders

Kilian Feldbausch 43%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$4.72

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 61.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pedro Vives Marcos39%

Kilian Feldbausch62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kilian Feldbausch3 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares6,874

Combined PnL-$32.9

Pedro Vives Marcos4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,611

Combined PnL+$37.61

Kilian Feldbausch — 43%Pedro Vives Marcos — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Kilian Feldbauschavg 62¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$33.56	50% 2504-2463 (4967)
RN1CTR	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 38¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$24.8	55% 5362-4301 (9663)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 38¢	$229.9	$238.98	+$9.08	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
0xheavy888<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 60.1¢	$92.5	$93.13	+$0.63	54% 491-416 (907)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 38¢	$29.4	$16.32	+$0.56	50% 1583-1605 (3188)
VeryLucky888CTR	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 38¢	$144.38	$9.18	+$3.18	53% 1337-1165 (2502)
EF efntrick<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 60¢	$4.8	$4.84	+$0.04	43% 85-111 (196)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$4,161.76

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$33.56

Record

50%

2504-2463 (4967)

RN1CTR

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$1,884.85

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$24.8

Record

55%

5362-4301 (9663)

FlaznorpCTR

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$229.9

Value

$238.98

PnL

+$9.08

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

0xheavy888<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$92.5

Value

$93.13

PnL

+$0.63

Record

54%

491-416 (907)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$29.4

Value

$16.32

PnL

+$0.56

Record

50%

1583-1605 (3188)

VeryLucky888CTR

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$144.38

Value

$9.18

PnL

+$3.18

Record

53%

1337-1165 (2502)

efntrick<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$0.04

Record

43%

85-111 (196)

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kilian Feldbausch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.