Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alexander Shevchenko, while the market favors Adrian Mannarino (56%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander Shevchenko

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Alexander Shevchenko (83%) · Alexander Shevchenko at 45¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 17

Adrian Mannarino56¢Alexander Shevchenko44¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alexander Shevchenko

Consensus Traders

Alexander Shevchenko 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$26.78

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 44.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Shevchenko at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Shevchenko

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Adrian Mannarino 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Adrian Mannarino56%

Alexander Shevchenko45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexander Shevchenko10 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares9,787

Combined PnL-$29.5

Adrian Mannarino2 traders

Total Value$282.86

Total Shares512

Combined PnL+$2.72

Alexander Shevchenko — 83%Adrian Mannarino — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+54 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Alexander Shevchenko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlexander Shevchenko 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlexander Shevchenko 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alexander Shevchenko 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 44.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$18.23	50% 76-76 (152)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 44¢	$3.2K	$1.4K	+$16.01	5% 6-120 (126)
GC GC-PCTR	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 44.9¢	$432.02	$428.07	-$3.94	7% 16-198 (214)
NM NM-PCTR	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 45¢	$752.56	$342.7	-$2.34	9% 16-167 (183)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 45¢	$766	$340.87	-$3.83	52% 271-247 (518)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Adrian Mannarinoavg 55¢	$240.42	$242.77	+$2.35	1% 2-236 (238)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	100% 29-0 (29)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 50¢	$100	$111	+$11
└ Alexander Shevchenko leg	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 50¢	$100	$89	-$11
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 47¢	$237.04	$106.03	-$5.68	36% 86-155 (241)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 50¢	$106.38	$94.68	-$11.7	1% 1-168 (169)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 53¢	$74.94	$40.09	+$0.37	1% 4-268 (272)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 47¢	$35.2	$35.6	+$0.4	26% 97-281 (378)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 45¢	$12.6	$12.46	-$0.14	48% 179-191 (370)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 47¢	$4.5	$4.45	-$0.05	26% 102-296 (398)

VeryLucky888CTR

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$1,607.23

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$18.23

Record

50%

76-76 (152)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$3,202.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$16.01

Record

6-120 (126)

GC-PCTR

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$432.02

Value

$428.07

PnL

-$3.94

Record

16-198 (214)

NM-PCTR

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$752.56

Value

$342.7

PnL

-$2.34

Record

16-167 (183)

FlaznorpCTR

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$766

Value

$340.87

PnL

-$3.83

Record

52%

271-247 (518)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$240.42

Value

$242.77

PnL

+$2.35

Record

2-236 (238)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

100%

29-0 (29)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$10050¢+$11

Alexander Shevchenko$10050¢-$11

omnibus-076daaCTR

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$237.04

Value

$106.03

PnL

-$5.68

Record

36%

86-155 (241)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$106.38

Value

$94.68

PnL

-$11.7

Record

1-168 (169)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$74.94

Value

$40.09

PnL

+$0.37

Record

4-268 (272)

VenusianCTR<$100

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$35.2

Value

$35.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

26%

97-281 (378)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$12.6

Value

$12.46

PnL

-$0.14

Record

48%

179-191 (370)

LimousinCTR<$100

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

26%

102-296 (398)

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Shevchenko at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Shevchenko

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Adrian Mannarino 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+54 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Alexander Shevchenko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlexander Shevchenko 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlexander Shevchenko 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alexander Shevchenko 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alexander Shevchenko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.