Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Toby Samuel, while the market favors Adrian Mannarino (77%). 14 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel

14 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Toby Samuel (61%) · Toby Samuel at 24¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 15

Adrian Mannarino77¢Toby Samuel23¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Toby Samuel

Consensus Traders

Toby Samuel 61%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.9K

Combined PnL

-$515.67

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 23.5¢

-50% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidToby Samuel at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toby Samuel

14 of 23 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Adrian Mannarino 77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Adrian Mannarino77%

Toby Samuel24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toby Samuel14 traders

Total Value$24.6K

Total Shares60,460

Combined PnL$-4.0K

Adrian Mannarino9 traders

Total Value$16.9K

Total Shares23,045

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Toby Samuel — 61%Adrian Mannarino — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Toby Samuelavg 45.7¢	$14.2K	$14.8K	+$560.95	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Adrian Mannarinoavg 50¢	$4.9K	$6.0K	+$1.0K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
0X 0xNuttawut	Adrian Mannarinoavg 51¢	$2.9K	$4.2K	+$1.3K	51% 1236-1201 (2437)
OM omnibus-076daa	Adrian Mannarinoavg 51¢	$3.2K	$3.7K	+$472.19	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
AF 0xafef...f50eCTR	Toby Samuelavg 50¢	$3.7K	$1.9K	$-1.8K	—
65 6512395314597884CTR	Toby Samuelavg 47.9¢	$3.4K	$1.9K	$-1.5K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
TRCM	Adrian Mannarinoavg 54¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$460.18	55% 4093-3300 (7393)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Toby Samuelavg 47.4¢	$2.2K	$1.3K	-$454.55	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Toby Samuel leg	Toby Samuelavg 47.4¢	$1.4K	$834.76	-$583.51
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 52.1¢	$328.52	$457.47	+$128.95
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 53¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$31.64	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 53¢	$595.67	$837.05	+$241.38
└ Toby Samuel leg	Toby Samuelavg 48¢	$582.34	$309.32	-$273.02
MA MadridTimeCTR	Toby Samuelavg 48¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$914.12	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Toby Samuelavg 45¢	$999.99	$1.1K	+$55.56	48% 4060-4345 (8405)
VeryLucky888CTR	Toby Samuelavg 45.7¢	$2.1K	$1.0K	+$11.92	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
LI Limousin	Adrian Mannarinoavg 50.5¢	$697.73	$865.09	+$167.35	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
HI hi774cCTR	Toby Samuelavg 45¢	$658.62	$695.21	+$36.59	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Toby Samuelavg 49¢	$719.92	$655.46	-$64.46	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Toby Samuelavg 50¢	$754.39	$611.05	-$143.33	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Toby Samuelavg 50¢	$706.73	$606.34	-$100.39	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
TH thestingsnake	Adrian Mannarinoavg 53.6¢	$378.68	$253.65	+$52.92	60% 4530-3029 (7559)
DA darkumbreon88	Adrian Mannarinoavg 52¢	$91.88	$105.14	+$13.25	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
PT PT-S7CTR	Toby Samuelavg 43¢	$147.73	$81.31	-$48.77	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Toby Samuelavg 47¢	$91.63	$55.57	-$36.07	48% 3689-3932 (7621)
machinelearned<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 55¢	$49.06	$54.38	+$5.32	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Toby Samuelavg 48.6¢	$62.65	$52.25	-$10.4	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Toby Samuelavg 47.8¢	$45.89	$45.6	-$0.29	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 65.9¢	$35.57	$39.15	+$3.58	57% 19479-14427 (33906)

RN1CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$14,204.69

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$560.95

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

ferrariChampions2026

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$4,937.74

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

0xNuttawut

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$2,903.11

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

51%

1236-1201 (2437)

omnibus-076daa

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$3,215.29

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$472.19

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

0xafef...f50eCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$3,747.07

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

—

6512395314597884CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$3,395.46

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

TRCM

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$1,306.72

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$460.18

Record

55%

4093-3300 (7393)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$2,150.28

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$454.55

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Toby Samuel$1,437.6647.4¢-$583.51

Adrian Mannarino$328.5252.1¢+$128.95

FlaznorpARB<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$1,178.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$31.64

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$595.6753¢+$241.38

Toby Samuel$582.3448¢-$273.02

MadridTimeCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$2,046.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$914.12

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

NotradecopyCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$999.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$55.56

Record

48%

4060-4345 (8405)

VeryLucky888CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$2,131.89

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$11.92

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Limousin

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$697.73

Value

$865.09

PnL

+$167.35

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

hi774cCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$658.62

Value

$695.21

PnL

+$36.59

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$719.92

Value

$655.46

PnL

-$64.46

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$754.39

Value

$611.05

PnL

-$143.33

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

LightParadoxCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$706.73

Value

$606.34

PnL

-$100.39

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

thestingsnake

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$378.68

Value

$253.65

PnL

+$52.92

Record

60%

4530-3029 (7559)

darkumbreon88

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$91.88

Value

$105.14

PnL

+$13.25

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

PT-S7CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$147.73

Value

$81.31

PnL

-$48.77

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

efntrickCTR<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$91.63

Value

$55.57

PnL

-$36.07

Record

48%

3689-3932 (7621)

machinelearned<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$49.06

Value

$54.38

PnL

+$5.32

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$62.65

Value

$52.25

PnL

-$10.4

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$45.89

Value

$45.6

PnL

-$0.29

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

BillBenter2026<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$35.57

Value

$39.15

PnL

+$3.58

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

Research grade

AvoidToby Samuel at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Toby Samuel

14 of 23 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Adrian Mannarino 77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toby Samuel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.