Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Manoj Dhamne Manas, while the market favors Pedro Vives Marcos (82%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Monastir: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Pedro Vives Marcos

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Manoj Dhamne Manas (64%) · Manoj Dhamne Manas at 19¢ · $661 held · ends Nov 17

Manoj Dhamne Manas19¢Pedro Vives Marcos81¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Manoj Dhamne Manas

Consensus Traders

Manoj Dhamne Manas 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$660.62

Combined PnL

-$115.8

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 18.5¢

-58% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidManoj Dhamne Manas at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Manoj Dhamne Manas

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Pedro Vives Marcos 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Manoj Dhamne Manas19%

Pedro Vives Marcos82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Manoj Dhamne Manas7 traders

Total Value$411.27

Total Shares1,193

Combined PnL-$118.13

Pedro Vives Marcos4 traders

Total Value$42.07

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$2.33

Manoj Dhamne Manas — 64%Pedro Vives Marcos — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Manoj Dhamne Manasavg 48¢	$387.76	$286.78	-$100.98	34% 164-316 (480)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Manoj Dhamne Manasavg 37¢	$213.98	$207.28	-$6.7	50% 1384-1403 (2787)
└ Manoj Dhamne Manas leg	Manoj Dhamne Manasavg 37¢	$169.86	$163.03	-$6.83
└ Pedro Vives Marcos leg	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 64.3¢	$44.12	$44.24	+$0.12
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Manoj Dhamne Manasavg 43¢	$67.8	$55.97	-$11.83	48% 752-814 (1566)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Manoj Dhamne Manasavg 41¢	$36.9	$31.95	-$4.95	14% 93-564 (657)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 69.7¢	$17.01	$17.92	+$0.91	56% 3777-2945 (6722)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Manoj Dhamne Manasavg 37¢	$17.76	$17.04	-$0.72	48% 407-443 (850)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 80.3¢	$16.05	$16.3	+$0.25	12% 59-453 (512)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Manoj Dhamne Manasavg 20¢	$13.88	$14.23	+$0.35	15% 65-357 (422)
VE Venusian<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 63¢	$3.91	$5.06	+$1.15	24% 205-638 (843)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Manoj Dhamne Manasavg 36¢	$3.6	$3.55	-$0.05	24% 201-643 (844)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 64¢	$2.77	$2.8	+$0.02	54% 1606-1351 (2957)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Manoj Dhamne Manasavg 17¢	$1.7	$1.75	+$0.05	24% 202-633 (835)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Manoj Dhamne Manas

Invested

$387.76

Value

$286.78

PnL

-$100.98

Record

34%

164-316 (480)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Manoj Dhamne Manas

Invested

$213.98

Value

$207.28

PnL

-$6.7

Record

50%

1384-1403 (2787)

Both legs:

Manoj Dhamne Manas$169.8637¢-$6.83

Pedro Vives Marcos$44.1264.3¢+$0.12

38791873984189CTR<$100

Manoj Dhamne Manas

Invested

$67.8

Value

$55.97

PnL

-$11.83

Record

48%

752-814 (1566)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Manoj Dhamne Manas

Invested

$36.9

Value

$31.95

PnL

-$4.95

Record

14%

93-564 (657)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$17.01

Value

$17.92

PnL

+$0.91

Record

56%

3777-2945 (6722)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Manoj Dhamne Manas

Invested

$17.76

Value

$17.04

PnL

-$0.72

Record

48%

407-443 (850)

BillBenter2026<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$16.05

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$0.25

Record

12%

59-453 (512)

babybellsCTR<$100

Manoj Dhamne Manas

Invested

$13.88

Value

$14.23

PnL

+$0.35

Record

15%

65-357 (422)

Venusian<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$3.91

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$1.15

Record

24%

205-638 (843)

LimousinCTR<$100

Manoj Dhamne Manas

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

24%

201-643 (844)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$2.77

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

1606-1351 (2957)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Manoj Dhamne Manas

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

24%

202-633 (835)

Research grade

AvoidManoj Dhamne Manas at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Manoj Dhamne Manas

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Pedro Vives Marcos 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Manoj Dhamne Manas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.