Lima: Alan Magadan vs Franco Roncadelli

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Franco Roncadelli (20%) · Franco Roncadelli at 74¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 20

Alan Magadan26¢Franco Roncadelli74¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Franco Roncadelli

Consensus Traders

Franco Roncadelli 20%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$0.07

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 74¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFranco Roncadelli at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Franco Roncadelli

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alan Magadan26%

Franco Roncadelli74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Franco Roncadelli2 traders

Total Value$815.95

Total Shares1,110

Combined PnL-$12.42

Alan Magadan8 traders

Total Value$362.07

Total Shares1,359

Combined PnL+$12.35

Franco Roncadelli — 20%Alan Magadan — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Franco Roncadelli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlan Magadan 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Alan Magadan 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Franco Roncadelliavg 74.6¢	$820.97	$808.55	-$12.42	53% 388-339 (727)
DV dv-pmCTR	Alan Magadanavg 26¢	$132.08	$132.08	+$0	40% 17-26 (43)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Alan Magadanavg 24.4¢	$105.38	$114.11	+$8.73	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
RN1CTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 26¢	$61.73	$62.91	+$1.19	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 25¢	$27	$28.08	+$1.08	56% 307-245 (552)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 25¢	$10.6	$11.02	+$0.42	43% 808-1065 (1873)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 74¢	$7.4	$7.4	+$0	40% 584-893 (1477)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 24¢	$5.76	$6.24	+$0.48	44% 391-495 (886)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 24¢	$3.84	$4.16	+$0.32	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 25¢	$3.33	$3.47	+$0.13	49% 1306-1355 (2661)

0xheavy888

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$820.97

Value

$808.55

PnL

-$12.42

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

dv-pmCTR

Alan Magadan

Invested

$132.08

Value

$132.08

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

17-26 (43)

FlaznorpCTR

Alan Magadan

Invested

$105.38

Value

$114.11

PnL

+$8.73

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

RN1CTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$61.73

Value

$62.91

PnL

+$1.19

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$27

Value

$28.08

PnL

+$1.08

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

sentrioCTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$10.6

Value

$11.02

PnL

+$0.42

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ameisgoat11<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$5.76

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$0.48

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$3.84

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0.32

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

Research grade

NeutralFranco Roncadelli at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Franco Roncadelli

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Franco Roncadelli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlan Magadan 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Alan Magadan 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Franco Roncadelli wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.