Lima: Alan Magadan vs Alex Barrena

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Alex Barrena (83%) · Alex Barrena at 91¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 19

Alan Magadan10¢Alex Barrena90¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alex Barrena

Consensus Traders

Alex Barrena 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$14.93

Smart Money Entry

77.6¢ → 90.5¢

+17% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlex Barrena at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Barrena

15 of 18 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alan Magadan10%

Alex Barrena91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alex Barrena15 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares9,707

Combined PnL+$21.08

Alan Magadan3 traders

Total Value$65.11

Total Shares574

Combined PnL-$36.01

Alex Barrena — 83%Alan Magadan — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Alex Barrena. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlex Barrena 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlex Barrena 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alex Barrena 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Alex Barrenaavg 75¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$24.64	56% 4482-3456 (7938)
65 6512395314597884	Alex Barrenaavg 75¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$10	50% 3540-3500 (7040)
VE Venusian	Alex Barrenaavg 85.4¢	$827.35	$847.72	+$20.37	32% 538-1125 (1663)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Alan Magadanavg 42.6¢	$1.1K	$447.76	-$12	54% 439-373 (812)
└ Alex Barrena leg	Alex Barrenaavg 50¢	$166.38	$294.5	+$402.84
└ Alan Magadan leg	Alan Magadanavg 42.6¢	$568.1	$153.27	-$414.84
1L 1lovejump	Alex Barrenaavg 87.6¢	$438.32	$440.64	+$2.31	36% 94-169 (263)
FL Flaznorp	Alex Barrenaavg 89¢	$369.83	$376.25	+$6.42	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
TH thirdt1me	Alex Barrenaavg 75.7¢	$200.79	$223.13	+$28.57	45% 157-194 (351)
MA MadridTime	Alex Barrenaavg 89¢	$217.66	$218.89	+$1.22	33% 558-1109 (1667)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Alex Barrenaavg 75¢	$211.31	$210.5	-$0.81	56% 3900-3066 (6966)
VeryLucky888	Alex Barrenaavg 74.5¢	$135.76	$132.59	+$1.83	52% 761-712 (1473)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 17¢	$82.82	$56.16	-$26.66	51% 2067-1978 (4045)
LI LightParadox<$100	Alex Barrenaavg 87¢	$29.68	$25.01	-$4.67	33% 553-1132 (1685)
SE sentrio<$100	Alex Barrenaavg 77¢	$14	$13.77	-$0.23	41% 544-784 (1328)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Alex Barrenaavg 84.3¢	$12.65	$13.28	+$0.63	26% 182-522 (704)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 22¢	$17.25	$8.23	-$9.02	33% 534-1108 (1642)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Alex Barrenaavg 89¢	$8.09	$8.14	+$0.05	51% 139-136 (275)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Alex Barrenaavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.78	+$0.02	38% 487-808 (1295)
38 38791873984189<$100	Alex Barrenaavg 76¢	$0.76	$0.77	+$0.01	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 14¢	$1.05	$0.71	-$0.34	49% 1228-1254 (2482)

RN1

Alex Barrena

Invested

$3,696.75

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$24.64

Record

56%

4482-3456 (7938)

6512395314597884

Alex Barrena

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

3540-3500 (7040)

Venusian

Alex Barrena

Invested

$827.35

Value

$847.72

PnL

+$20.37

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

NotJumpARB<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$1,093.1

Value

$447.76

PnL

-$12

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

Alex Barrena$166.3850¢+$402.84

Alan Magadan$568.142.6¢-$414.84

1lovejump

Alex Barrena

Invested

$438.32

Value

$440.64

PnL

+$2.31

Record

36%

94-169 (263)

Flaznorp

Alex Barrena

Invested

$369.83

Value

$376.25

PnL

+$6.42

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

thirdt1me

Alex Barrena

Invested

$200.79

Value

$223.13

PnL

+$28.57

Record

45%

157-194 (351)

MadridTime

Alex Barrena

Invested

$217.66

Value

$218.89

PnL

+$1.22

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Alex Barrena

Invested

$211.31

Value

$210.5

PnL

-$0.81

Record

56%

3900-3066 (6966)

VeryLucky888

Alex Barrena

Invested

$135.76

Value

$132.59

PnL

+$1.83

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$82.82

Value

$56.16

PnL

-$26.66

Record

51%

2067-1978 (4045)

LightParadox<$100

Alex Barrena

Invested

$29.68

Value

$25.01

PnL

-$4.67

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

sentrio<$100

Alex Barrena

Invested

$14

Value

$13.77

PnL

-$0.23

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

BillBenter2026<$100

Alex Barrena

Invested

$12.65

Value

$13.28

PnL

+$0.63

Record

26%

182-522 (704)

LimousinCTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$17.25

Value

$8.23

PnL

-$9.02

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

Eulhunter<$100

Alex Barrena

Invested

$8.09

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

139-136 (275)

ameisgoat11<$100

Alex Barrena

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.02

Record

38%

487-808 (1295)

38791873984189<$100

Alex Barrena

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.77

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

Research grade

NeutralAlex Barrena at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Barrena

15 of 18 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Alex Barrena. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlex Barrena 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlex Barrena 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alex Barrena 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alex Barrena wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.