Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Johannus Monday, while the market favors Francesco Maestrelli (65%). 11 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hersonissos 3: Francesco Maestrelli vs Johannus Monday

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Johannus Monday (55%) · Johannus Monday at 36¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 18

Francesco Maestrelli65¢Johannus Monday35¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Johannus Monday

Consensus Traders

Johannus Monday 55%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

-$256.22

Smart Money Entry

41.4¢ → 35.5¢

-14% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralJohannus Monday at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Johannus Monday

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Francesco Maestrelli 65%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Francesco Maestrelli65%

Johannus Monday36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Francesco Maestrelli9 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,414

Combined PnL-$33.19

Johannus Monday11 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares11,850

Combined PnL-$223.02

Francesco Maestrelli — 45%Johannus Monday — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Francesco Maestrelliavg 57.5¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$40.23	50% 3287-3240 (6527)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Johannus Mondayavg 42.6¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$115.57	31% 372-838 (1210)
VE VenusianCTR	Johannus Mondayavg 41.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$62.22	30% 371-860 (1231)
RN1CTR	Johannus Mondayavg 41¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$43.44	57% 4020-3036 (7056)
VeryLucky888CTR	Johannus Mondayavg 38¢	$518.29	$538.75	+$20.46	52% 440-413 (853)
TH thirdt1me	Francesco Maestrelliavg 57.3¢	$344	$339	-$5	43% 109-145 (254)
38 38791873984189	Francesco Maestrelliavg 57¢	$170.43	$180.89	+$10.46	48% 1257-1350 (2607)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Johannus Mondayavg 43¢	$132	$121.26	-$10.74	23% 109-368 (477)
FL Flaznorp	Francesco Maestrelliavg 58.2¢	$119.45	$116.19	-$3.26	51% 1816-1775 (3591)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Francesco Maestrelliavg 58.7¢	$91.37	$93.28	+$1.92	56% 3836-3005 (6841)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 45¢	$67.5	$59.25	-$8.25	39% 472-733 (1205)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Francesco Maestrelliavg 60¢	$39.97	$40.3	+$0.33	61% 920-590 (1510)
BA babybells<$100	Francesco Maestrelliavg 57¢	$33.39	$35.44	+$2.05	22% 116-402 (518)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 43.7¢	$24.3	$21.97	-$2.33	49% 91-96 (187)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 43¢	$21.5	$21.75	+$0.25	30% 367-860 (1227)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 42¢	$16.88	$15.87	-$1	8% 39-427 (466)
PA Pan9X<$100	Francesco Maestrelliavg 61¢	$15.86	$15.73	-$0.13	48% 654-703 (1357)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Francesco Maestrelliavg 57¢	$10.83	$11.5	+$0.67	53% 1783-1584 (3367)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 41.5¢	$4.15	$3.95	-$0.2	21% 129-485 (614)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 39¢	$2.64	$2.68	+$0.03	37% 338-564 (902)

6512395314597884

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$2,326.78

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$40.23

Record

50%

3287-3240 (6527)

MadridTimeCTR

Johannus Monday

Invested

$1,585.8

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$115.57

Record

31%

372-838 (1210)

VenusianCTR

Johannus Monday

Invested

$1,345.38

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$62.22

Record

30%

371-860 (1231)

RN1CTR

Johannus Monday

Invested

$1,187.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$43.44

Record

57%

4020-3036 (7056)

VeryLucky888CTR

Johannus Monday

Invested

$518.29

Value

$538.75

PnL

+$20.46

Record

52%

440-413 (853)

thirdt1me

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$344

Value

$339

PnL

-$5

Record

43%

109-145 (254)

38791873984189

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$170.43

Value

$180.89

PnL

+$10.46

Record

48%

1257-1350 (2607)

thestingsnakeCTR

Johannus Monday

Invested

$132

Value

$121.26

PnL

-$10.74

Record

23%

109-368 (477)

Flaznorp

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$119.45

Value

$116.19

PnL

-$3.26

Record

51%

1816-1775 (3591)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$91.37

Value

$93.28

PnL

+$1.92

Record

56%

3836-3005 (6841)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$67.5

Value

$59.25

PnL

-$8.25

Record

39%

472-733 (1205)

darkumbreon88<$100

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$39.97

Value

$40.3

PnL

+$0.33

Record

61%

920-590 (1510)

babybells<$100

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$33.39

Value

$35.44

PnL

+$2.05

Record

22%

116-402 (518)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$24.3

Value

$21.97

PnL

-$2.33

Record

49%

91-96 (187)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$21.5

Value

$21.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

30%

367-860 (1227)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$16.88

Value

$15.87

PnL

-$1

Record

39-427 (466)

Pan9X<$100

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$15.86

Value

$15.73

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

654-703 (1357)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$10.83

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$0.67

Record

53%

1783-1584 (3367)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$4.15

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.2

Record

21%

129-485 (614)

sentrioCTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.03

Record

37%

338-564 (902)

Research grade

NeutralJohannus Monday at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Johannus Monday

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Francesco Maestrelli 65%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Johannus Monday wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.