Hersonissos 3: Francesco Maestrelli vs Jack Loge
10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Francesco Maestrelli (50%) · Francesco Maestrelli at 87¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Francesco Maestrelli
20
Francesco Maestrelli 50%
$5.8K
-$92.44
78.2¢ → 86.5¢
+11% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralFrancesco Maestrelli at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Francesco Maestrelliavg 83.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$66.88 | 25% 203-620 (823) |
65 6512395314597884 | Francesco Maestrelliavg 80¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$9.94 | 51% 3157-3056 (6213) |
38 38791873984189 | Francesco Maestrelliavg 67¢ | $488.43 | $492.08 | +$3.65 | 48% 733-802 (1535) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Jack Logeavg 31¢ | $335.99 | $333.89 | +$12.37 | 48% 214-230 (444) |
TH thirdt1me | Francesco Maestrelliavg 82¢ | $328 | $322 | -$6 | 33% 56-112 (168) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Jack Logeavg 16.9¢ | $325.8 | $259.68 | -$66.13 | 54% 1605-1351 (2956) |
 tradecraft | Francesco Maestrelliavg 68¢ | $140.5 | $165.88 | +$25.38 | 14% 93-563 (656) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Francesco Maestrelliavg 80.1¢ | $157.4 | $161.6 | +$4.2 | 56% 3777-2944 (6721) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Francesco Maestrelliavg 67.7¢ | $160.7 | $160.33 | -$0.37 | 34% 163-316 (479) |
FL Flaznorp | Francesco Maestrelliavg 72¢ | $140.06 | $154.4 | +$14.35 | 50% 1383-1403 (2786) |
TH thestingsnake | Francesco Maestrelliavg 71.7¢ | $340.16 | $153.22 | +$31.75 | 15% 60-330 (390) |
VI vibing123CTR | Jack Logeavg 33¢ | $289.41 | $118.4 | -$171.02 | 63% 1075-638 (1713) |
 TRCMCTR<$100 | Jack Logeavg 25¢ | $49.5 | $52.47 | +$2.97 | 6% 27-410 (437) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Jack Logeavg 33¢ | $49.5 | $48.75 | -$0.75 | 56% 99-79 (178) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Francesco Maestrelliavg 84¢ | $9.42 | $9.3 | -$0.12 | 24% 201-642 (843) |
BA babybellsCTR<$100 | Jack Logeavg 27¢ | $7.04 | $7.17 | +$0.13 | 15% 64-357 (421) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Jack Logeavg 33.9¢ | $6.78 | $7 | +$0.22 | 12% 59-452 (511) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Jack Logeavg 32¢ | $2.49 | $2.53 | +$0.04 | 22% 141-486 (627) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Jack Logeavg 26¢ | $1.3 | $1.28 | -$0.03 | 24% 205-637 (842) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Jack Logeavg 24¢ | $1.2 | $1.17 | -$0.03 | 24% 202-632 (834) |
Invested
$1,648.86
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$66.88
Record
25%
203-620 (823)
Invested
$1,602.5
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$9.94
Record
51%
3157-3056 (6213)
Invested
$488.43
Value
$492.08
PnL
+$3.65
Record
48%
733-802 (1535)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$335.99
Value
$333.89
PnL
+$12.37
Record
48%
214-230 (444)
Invested
$328
Value
$322
PnL
-$6
Record
33%
56-112 (168)
Invested
$325.8
Value
$259.68
PnL
-$66.13
Record
54%
1605-1351 (2956)
tradecraftInvested
$140.5
Value
$165.88
PnL
+$25.38
Record
14%
93-563 (656)
Invested
$157.4
Value
$161.6
PnL
+$4.2
Record
56%
3777-2944 (6721)
Invested
$160.7
Value
$160.33
PnL
-$0.37
Record
34%
163-316 (479)
Invested
$140.06
Value
$154.4
PnL
+$14.35
Record
50%
1383-1403 (2786)
Invested
$340.16
Value
$153.22
PnL
+$31.75
Record
15%
60-330 (390)
Invested
$289.41
Value
$118.4
PnL
-$171.02
Record
63%
1075-638 (1713)
TRCMCTR<$100Invested
$49.5
Value
$52.47
PnL
+$2.97
Record
6%
27-410 (437)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$49.5
Value
$48.75
PnL
-$0.75
Record
56%
99-79 (178)
Invested
$9.42
Value
$9.3
PnL
-$0.12
Record
24%
201-642 (843)
Invested
$7.04
Value
$7.17
PnL
+$0.13
Record
15%
64-357 (421)
Invested
$6.78
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.22
Record
12%
59-452 (511)
Invested
$2.49
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$0.04
Record
22%
141-486 (627)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.28
PnL
-$0.03
Record
24%
205-637 (842)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$0.03
Record
24%
202-632 (834)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
MadridTime
Francesco Maestrelli — $1.7K
6512395314597884
Francesco Maestrelli — $1.6K
38791873984189
Francesco Maestrelli — $492.08
VeryLucky888
CTRJack Loge — $333.89
thirdt1me
Francesco Maestrelli — $322
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRJack Loge — $259.68
tradecraft
Francesco Maestrelli — $165.88
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Francesco Maestrelli — $161.6
omnibus-076daa
Francesco Maestrelli — $160.33
Flaznorp
Francesco Maestrelli — $154.4