Hersonissos 3: Francesco Maestrelli vs Philip Henning

16 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Philip Henning (73%) · Philip Henning at 67¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 21

Francesco Maestrelli34¢Philip Henning66¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Philip Henning

Consensus Traders

Philip Henning 73%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.4K

Combined PnL

$6.1K

Smart Money Entry

39.4¢ → 66.5¢

+69% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralPhilip Henning at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Philip Henning

16 of 22 top traders (73%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Francesco Maestrelli34%

Philip Henning67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Philip Henning16 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares28,907

Combined PnL+$6.3K

Francesco Maestrelli6 traders

Total Value$669.97

Total Shares1,504

Combined PnL-$226.9

Philip Henning — 73%Francesco Maestrelli — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Philip Henning. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPhilip Henning 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPhilip Henning 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Philip Henning 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Philip Henningavg 37¢	$3.7K	$6.1K	+$2.3K	50% 2500-2457 (4957)
65 6512395314597884	Philip Henningavg 44.1¢	$2.2K	$3.3K	+$1.1K	50% 3804-3773 (7577)
RN1	Philip Henningavg 46.7¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$41.06	56% 5349-4286 (9635)
TH thirdt1me	Philip Henningavg 35.5¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$1.0K	49% 277-293 (570)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Francesco Maestrelliavg 49.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$53.34	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
└ Francesco Maestrelli leg	Francesco Maestrelliavg 49.6¢	$891.97	$782.33	-$109.63
└ Philip Henning leg	Philip Henningavg 39.9¢	$391.29	$554.27	+$162.97
0X 0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3	Philip Henningavg 26.5¢	$500	$1.3K	+$774.66	9% 2-20 (22)
VeryLucky888	Philip Henningavg 46¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	+$9.95	53% 1318-1151 (2469)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Philip Henningavg 49.9¢	$1.1K	$928.9	-$13.88	52% 802-736 (1538)
└ Francesco Maestrelli leg	Francesco Maestrelliavg 50¢	$432.9	$575.75	+$159.43
└ Philip Henning leg	Philip Henningavg 49.9¢	$526.46	$353.14	-$173.31
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Francesco Maestrelliavg 56.6¢	$863.17	$910.69	+$47.52	56% 4054-3165 (7219)
└ Philip Henning leg	Philip Henningavg 37.9¢	$343.96	$612.46	+$268.51
└ Francesco Maestrelli leg	Francesco Maestrelliavg 56.6¢	$519.21	$298.23	-$220.98
38 38791873984189	Philip Henningavg 28.6¢	$1.3K	$854.66	+$780.26	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Philip Henningavg 44.5¢	$3.5K	$812.78	-$385.19	48% 508-541 (1049)
└ Philip Henning leg	Philip Henningavg 44.5¢	$614.83	$628.94	+$166.75
└ Francesco Maestrelli leg	Francesco Maestrelliavg 54¢	$182.18	$183.84	-$551.94
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Philip Henningavg 37.7¢	$597.15	$469.39	+$31.29	39% 123-194 (317)
└ Philip Henning leg	Philip Henningavg 37.7¢	$261.51	$329.34	+$48.82
└ Francesco Maestrelli leg	Francesco Maestrelliavg 56.4¢	$150.45	$140.05	-$17.53
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Francesco Maestrelliavg 65.7¢	$349.51	$313.17	-$30.19	46% 479-564 (1043)
BA babybells	Philip Henningavg 34.3¢	$140.27	$210.88	+$104.08	30% 205-474 (679)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100	Philip Henningavg 31.4¢	$169.29	$197.71	+$56.68	43% 354-460 (814)
└ Philip Henning leg	Philip Henningavg 31.4¢	$83.68	$153.09	+$75.02
└ Francesco Maestrelli leg	Francesco Maestrelliavg 57.2¢	$60.1	$44.63	-$18.33
TRCM	Philip Henningavg 32¢	$176.6	$195.91	+$19.32	16% 83-451 (534)
EU Eulhunter	Philip Henningavg 27.4¢	$152.73	$153.18	+$0.45	51% 187-178 (365)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Francesco Maestrelliavg 55.8¢	$494.14	$136.74	-$25.73	33% 215-434 (649)
MA MadridTime	Philip Henningavg 46¢	$90.16	$132.3	+$42.14	37% 961-1629 (2590)
0xheavy888	Philip Henningavg 46¢	$117.88	$117.88	+$0	54% 489-415 (904)
VE VenusianCTR	Francesco Maestrelliavg 55¢	$179.22	$104.3	-$74.92	36% 942-1663 (2605)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Francesco Maestrelliavg 59¢	$156.26	$86.08	-$70.18	37% 954-1658 (2612)
SU suntori<$100	Philip Henningavg 47¢	$76.43	$71.33	-$2.63	46% 2546-3015 (5561)
LI Limousin<$100	Philip Henningavg 48¢	$27.75	$27.46	-$0.29	36% 923-1640 (2563)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Francesco Maestrelliavg 61.7¢	$29	$15.28	-$13.73	29% 235-575 (810)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Philip Henning

Invested

$3,738.15

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

50%

2500-2457 (4957)

6512395314597884

Philip Henning

Invested

$2,220.74

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

3804-3773 (7577)

RN1

Philip Henning

Invested

$2,380.5

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$41.06

Record

56%

5349-4286 (9635)

thirdt1me

Philip Henning

Invested

$1,329.72

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

49%

277-293 (570)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$1,283.26

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$53.34

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

Both legs:

Francesco Maestrelli$891.9749.6¢-$109.63

Philip Henning$391.2939.9¢+$162.97

0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3

Philip Henning

Invested

$500

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$774.66

Record

2-20 (22)

VeryLucky888

Philip Henning

Invested

$1,551.84

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$9.95

Record

53%

1318-1151 (2469)

NotJumpARB<$100

Philip Henning

Invested

$1,051.46

Value

$928.9

PnL

-$13.88

Record

52%

802-736 (1538)

Both legs:

Francesco Maestrelli$432.950¢+$159.43

Philip Henning$526.4649.9¢-$173.31

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$863.17

Value

$910.69

PnL

+$47.52

Record

56%

4054-3165 (7219)

Both legs:

Philip Henning$343.9637.9¢+$268.51

Francesco Maestrelli$519.2156.6¢-$220.98

38791873984189

Philip Henning

Invested

$1,273.66

Value

$854.66

PnL

+$780.26

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Philip Henning

Invested

$3,520.17

Value

$812.78

PnL

-$385.19

Record

48%

508-541 (1049)

Both legs:

Philip Henning$614.8344.5¢+$166.75

Francesco Maestrelli$182.1854¢-$551.94

1lovejumpARB<$100

Philip Henning

Invested

$597.15

Value

$469.39

PnL

+$31.29

Record

39%

123-194 (317)

Both legs:

Philip Henning$261.5137.7¢+$48.82

Francesco Maestrelli$150.4556.4¢-$17.53

omnibus-076daaCTR

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$349.51

Value

$313.17

PnL

-$30.19

Record

46%

479-564 (1043)

babybells

Philip Henning

Invested

$140.27

Value

$210.88

PnL

+$104.08

Record

30%

205-474 (679)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100

Philip Henning

Invested

$169.29

Value

$197.71

PnL

+$56.68

Record

43%

354-460 (814)

Both legs:

Philip Henning$83.6831.4¢+$75.02

Francesco Maestrelli$60.157.2¢-$18.33

TRCM

Philip Henning

Invested

$176.6

Value

$195.91

PnL

+$19.32

Record

16%

83-451 (534)

Eulhunter

Philip Henning

Invested

$152.73

Value

$153.18

PnL

+$0.45

Record

51%

187-178 (365)

thestingsnakeCTR

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$494.14

Value

$136.74

PnL

-$25.73

Record

33%

215-434 (649)

MadridTime

Philip Henning

Invested

$90.16

Value

$132.3

PnL

+$42.14

Record

37%

961-1629 (2590)

0xheavy888

Philip Henning

Invested

$117.88

Value

$117.88

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

489-415 (904)

VenusianCTR

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$179.22

Value

$104.3

PnL

-$74.92

Record

36%

942-1663 (2605)

LightParadoxCTR

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$156.26

Value

$86.08

PnL

-$70.18

Record

37%

954-1658 (2612)

suntori<$100

Philip Henning

Invested

$76.43

Value

$71.33

PnL

-$2.63

Record

46%

2546-3015 (5561)

Limousin<$100

Philip Henning

Invested

$27.75

Value

$27.46

PnL

-$0.29

Record

36%

923-1640 (2563)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$29

Value

$15.28

PnL

-$13.73

Record

29%

235-575 (810)

Research grade

NeutralPhilip Henning at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Philip Henning

16 of 22 top traders (73%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Philip Henning. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPhilip Henning 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPhilip Henning 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Philip Henning 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Philip Henning wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.