Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Martin Landaluce, while the market favors Tomas Machac (100%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Martin Landaluce

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Martin Landaluce (30%) · Martin Landaluce at 0.1¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 7

Tomas Machac>99¢Martin Landaluce<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Martin Landaluce

Consensus Traders

Martin Landaluce 30%

Total Value

$30.9K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMartin Landaluce at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Martin Landaluce

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Tomas Machac 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tomas Machac100%

Martin Landaluce0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tomas Machac7 traders

Total Value$20.1K

Total Shares20,249

Combined PnL+$8.0K

Martin Landaluce3 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares31,434

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Tomas Machac — 70%Martin Landaluce — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Tomas Machacavg 56.9¢	$8.8K	$15.5K	+$6.7K	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
LU LuzzzerCTR	Martin Landaluceavg 43.8¢	$13.7K	$10.8K	$-2.9K	46% 116-136 (252)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Tomas Machacavg 59.6¢	$2.1K	$3.3K	+$1.2K	52% 13782-12582 (26364)
TH thestingsnake	Tomas Machacavg 89.4¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	+$95.77	60% 4065-2738 (6803)
VeryLucky888	Tomas Machacavg 63.1¢	$218.51	$226.71	+$8.19	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
HRTrading<$100	Tomas Machacavg 96¢	$65.9	$68.63	+$2.73	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
TRCM<$100	Tomas Machacavg 72.9¢	$20.41	$25.57	+$5.16	55% 3948-3180 (7128)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Tomas Machacavg 97¢	$4.85	$5	+$0.15	36% 15596-27543 (43139)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Martin Landaluceavg 32¢	$3.2	$2.55	-$0.65	51% 1445-1388 (2833)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Martin Landaluceavg 5¢	$5	$0.05	-$4.95	49% 7958-8291 (16249)

RN1

Tomas Machac

Invested

$8,792.22

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$6.7K

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

LuzzzerCTR

Martin Landaluce

Invested

$13,722.33

Value

$10.8K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

46%

116-136 (252)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Tomas Machac

Invested

$2,066.99

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

52%

13782-12582 (26364)

thestingsnake

Tomas Machac

Invested

$1,158.61

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$95.77

Record

60%

4065-2738 (6803)

VeryLucky888

Tomas Machac

Invested

$218.51

Value

$226.71

PnL

+$8.19

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

HRTrading<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$65.9

Value

$68.63

PnL

+$2.73

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

TRCM<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$20.41

Value

$25.57

PnL

+$5.16

Record

55%

3948-3180 (7128)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$4.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

36%

15596-27543 (43139)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Martin Landaluce

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.65

Record

51%

1445-1388 (2833)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Martin Landaluce

Invested

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.95

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

Research grade

AvoidMartin Landaluce at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Martin Landaluce

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Tomas Machac 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Martin Landaluce wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.