Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bruno Fernandez, while the market favors Francisco Llanes (98%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Montevideo: Francisco Llanes vs Bruno Fernandez

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Bruno Fernandez (53%) · Bruno Fernandez at 2.5¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 22

Francisco Llanes98¢Bruno Fernandez2¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bruno Fernandez

Consensus Traders

Bruno Fernandez 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$340.74

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 2.5¢

-95% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidBruno Fernandez at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bruno Fernandez

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Francisco Llanes 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Francisco Llanes98%

Bruno Fernandez3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bruno Fernandez8 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares7,571

Combined PnL-$571.33

Francisco Llanes7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,685

Combined PnL+$230.58

Bruno Fernandez — 53%Francisco Llanes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Bruno Fernandez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFrancisco Llanes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBruno Fernandez 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedBruno Fernandez 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bruno Fernandez 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Bruno Fernandezavg 52¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$233.64	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
NO NotJumpCTR	Bruno Fernandezavg 48.5¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	+$3.03	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
VE Venusian	Francisco Llanesavg 88¢	$484.35	$474.08	-$10.27	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
38 38791873984189CTR	Bruno Fernandezavg 51.8¢	$934.79	$443.14	-$93.38	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
FL Flaznorp	Francisco Llanesavg 79¢	$340	$393.89	+$53.89	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
BA babybells	Francisco Llanesavg 26.6¢	$173.01	$319.41	+$187.1	34% 268-521 (789)
TH thestingsnake	Francisco Llanesavg 96.9¢	$397.78	$316.88	-$69.28	36% 252-449 (701)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Bruno Fernandezavg 31.3¢	$595.57	$138.52	-$292.63	48% 630-669 (1299)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Bruno Fernandezavg 47¢	$108.33	$113.37	+$5.04	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
└ Francisco Llanes leg	Francisco Llanesavg 37.1¢	$38.25	$79.82	+$41.57
└ Bruno Fernandez leg	Bruno Fernandezavg 47¢	$70.08	$33.55	-$36.53
LI Limousin	Francisco Llanesavg 29.6¢	$41.09	$110.34	+$69.25	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Bruno Fernandezavg 46¢	$58.88	$106.24	+$47.36	46% 631-739 (1370)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Bruno Fernandezavg 65¢	$54.23	$53.81	-$0.42	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Francisco Llanesavg 54¢	$10.8	$11	+$0.2	83% 962-202 (1164)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Bruno Fernandezavg 66.6¢	$5.97	$4.31	-$1.66	46% 472-559 (1031)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Francisco Llanesavg 14.8¢	$3.41	$3.11	-$0.3	53% 217-191 (408)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Bruno Fernandezavg 2¢	$0.1	$0.13	+$0.02	50% 2841-2879 (5720)

RN1CTR

Bruno Fernandez

Invested

$1,751.03

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$233.64

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

NotJumpCTR

Bruno Fernandez

Invested

$1,980.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$3.03

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Venusian

Francisco Llanes

Invested

$484.35

Value

$474.08

PnL

-$10.27

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

38791873984189CTR

Bruno Fernandez

Invested

$934.79

Value

$443.14

PnL

-$93.38

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

Flaznorp

Francisco Llanes

Invested

$340

Value

$393.89

PnL

+$53.89

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

babybells

Francisco Llanes

Invested

$173.01

Value

$319.41

PnL

+$187.1

Record

34%

268-521 (789)

thestingsnake

Francisco Llanes

Invested

$397.78

Value

$316.88

PnL

-$69.28

Record

36%

252-449 (701)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Bruno Fernandez

Invested

$595.57

Value

$138.52

PnL

-$292.63

Record

48%

630-669 (1299)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Bruno Fernandez

Invested

$108.33

Value

$113.37

PnL

+$5.04

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

Both legs:

Francisco Llanes$38.2537.1¢+$41.57

Bruno Fernandez$70.0847¢-$36.53

Limousin

Francisco Llanes

Invested

$41.09

Value

$110.34

PnL

+$69.25

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Bruno Fernandez

Invested

$58.88

Value

$106.24

PnL

+$47.36

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Bruno Fernandez

Invested

$54.23

Value

$53.81

PnL

-$0.42

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Francisco Llanes

Invested

$10.8

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.2

Record

83%

962-202 (1164)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Bruno Fernandez

Invested

$5.97

Value

$4.31

PnL

-$1.66

Record

46%

472-559 (1031)

Eulhunter<$100

Francisco Llanes

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

217-191 (408)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Bruno Fernandez

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

Research grade

AvoidBruno Fernandez at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bruno Fernandez

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Francisco Llanes 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Bruno Fernandez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFrancisco Llanes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBruno Fernandez 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedBruno Fernandez 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bruno Fernandez 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bruno Fernandez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.7%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2625.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

2725.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.