Knoxville: Marcel Latak vs Clement Chidekh

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Clement Chidekh (67%) · Clement Chidekh at 93¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 16

Marcel Latak7¢Clement Chidekh93¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Clement Chidekh

Consensus Traders

Clement Chidekh 67%

Total Value

$17.4K

Combined PnL

-$280.5

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 92.5¢

-3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralClement Chidekh at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Chidekh

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Marcel Latak7%

Clement Chidekh93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clement Chidekh12 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares18,356

Combined PnL-$309.72

Marcel Latak6 traders

Total Value$106

Total Shares1,930

Combined PnL+$29.22

Clement Chidekh — 67%Marcel Latak — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Clement Chidekh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMarcel Latak 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedMarcel Latak 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Marcel Latak 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Clement Chidekhavg 95.1¢	$7.6K	$7.4K	-$149.35	54% 235-203 (438)
FL Flaznorp	Clement Chidekhavg 96¢	$5.1K	$4.1K	-$86.77	52% 242-227 (469)
38 38791873984189	Clement Chidekhavg 96¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$2.82	49% 388-405 (793)
MA MadridTime	Clement Chidekhavg 96¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$64.76	25% 88-264 (352)
SE sentrio	Clement Chidekhavg 96.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$7.89	23% 49-166 (215)
LI LightParadox	Clement Chidekhavg 95.5¢	$244.38	$239.39	-$4.22	26% 89-254 (343)
GA Gaditima	Clement Chidekhavg 95¢	$153.24	$146.34	+$0.77	48% 32-35 (67)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 95.6¢	$97.33	$97.26	-$0.08	39% 43-66 (109)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 94.9¢	$56.92	$55.89	-$1.03	55% 35-29 (64)
PA Pan9X<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 93¢	$46.78	$48.43	+$1.19	48% 174-190 (364)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Marcel Latakavg 3.9¢	$20.83	$39.8	+$18.96	24% 90-284 (374)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 93.6¢	$25.59	$25.49	-$0.1	52% 16-15 (31)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Marcel Latakavg 4.1¢	$15.35	$22.35	+$7.01	24% 84-270 (354)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR<$100	Marcel Latakavg 4.6¢	$18.4	$16.2	-$2.2	5% 4-77 (81)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 94.5¢	$14.18	$13.88	-$0.29	15% 32-181 (213)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Marcel Latakavg 4¢	$24	$13.55	+$4.49	48% 61-65 (126)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Marcel Latakavg 4.2¢	$12.55	$13.46	+$0.9	42% 28-38 (66)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Marcel Latakavg 3¢	$0.6	$0.65	+$0.05	26% 39-111 (150)

RN1

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$7,593.89

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$149.35

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

Flaznorp

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$5,087.09

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$86.77

Record

52%

242-227 (469)

38791873984189

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$1,908.8

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$2.82

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

MadridTime

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$1,845.75

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$64.76

Record

25%

88-264 (352)

sentrio

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$1,470.31

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$7.89

Record

23%

49-166 (215)

LightParadox

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$244.38

Value

$239.39

PnL

-$4.22

Record

26%

89-254 (343)

Gaditima

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$153.24

Value

$146.34

PnL

+$0.77

Record

48%

32-35 (67)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$97.33

Value

$97.26

PnL

-$0.08

Record

39%

43-66 (109)

Eulhunter<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$56.92

Value

$55.89

PnL

-$1.03

Record

55%

35-29 (64)

Pan9X<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$46.78

Value

$48.43

PnL

+$1.19

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

LimousinCTR<$100

Marcel Latak

Invested

$20.83

Value

$39.8

PnL

+$18.96

Record

24%

90-284 (374)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$25.59

Value

$25.49

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

16-15 (31)

VenusianCTR<$100

Marcel Latak

Invested

$15.35

Value

$22.35

PnL

+$7.01

Record

24%

84-270 (354)

ubetteruuuuCTR<$100

Marcel Latak

Invested

$18.4

Value

$16.2

PnL

-$2.2

Record

4-77 (81)

BillBenter2026<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$14.18

Value

$13.88

PnL

-$0.29

Record

15%

32-181 (213)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Marcel Latak

Invested

$24

Value

$13.55

PnL

+$4.49

Record

48%

61-65 (126)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Marcel Latak

Invested

$12.55

Value

$13.46

PnL

+$0.9

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Marcel Latak

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

26%

39-111 (150)

Research grade

NeutralClement Chidekh at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Chidekh

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Clement Chidekh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMarcel Latak 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedMarcel Latak 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Marcel Latak 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clement Chidekh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.9%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.