Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Christian Langmo, while the market favors James McCabe (63%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Brisbane 3: Christian Langmo vs James McCabe
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Christian Langmo (67%) · Christian Langmo at 38¢ · $277 held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
Christian Langmo
6
Christian Langmo 67%
$276.86
$7.89
37.1¢ → 37.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralChristian Langmo at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors James McCabe 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Christian Langmo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Christian Langmoavg 37¢ | $216.9 | $224.09 | +$7.19 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | James McCabeavg 62¢ | $15.91 | $15.91 | -$0 | 55% 205-165 (370) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Christian Langmoavg 37¢ | $11.47 | $11.78 | +$0.31 | 49% 683-724 (1407) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Christian Langmoavg 38¢ | $10.48 | $10.48 | +$0 | 31% 406-905 (1311) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Christian Langmoavg 38¢ | $9.75 | $9.75 | +$0 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
SE sentrio<$100 | James McCabeavg 57¢ | $4.46 | $4.85 | +$0.39 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
Invested
$216.9
Value
$224.09
PnL
+$7.19
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$15.91
Value
$15.91
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
205-165 (370)
Invested
$11.47
Value
$11.78
PnL
+$0.31
Record
49%
683-724 (1407)
Invested
$10.48
Value
$10.48
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
406-905 (1311)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$9.75
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
Invested
$4.46
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.39
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.