Brisbane 3: Christian Langmo vs Ymerali Ibraimi
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Christian Langmo (71%) · Christian Langmo at 85¢ · $833 held · ends Nov 17
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Research candidate
Christian Langmo
7
Christian Langmo 71%
$833.4
$1.05
85.6¢ → 84.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateChristian Langmo at 85%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+16 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Christian Langmo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Christian Langmoavg 85.6¢ | $600.87 | $592.91 | -$7.96 | 57% 70-52 (122) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Ymerali Ibraimiavg 14.1¢ | $69.15 | $78.56 | +$6.96 | 23% 174-599 (773) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Christian Langmoavg 84¢ | $45.92 | $48.15 | +$1.67 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Ymerali Ibraimiavg 15¢ | $37.5 | $38.75 | +$1.25 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Christian Langmoavg 85¢ | $34.85 | $34.44 | +$0 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Christian Langmoavg 87¢ | $33.35 | $32.2 | -$0.77 | 34% 147-291 (438) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Christian Langmoavg 85¢ | $8.5 | $8.4 | -$0.1 | 20% 113-461 (574) |
0xheavy888Invested
$600.87
Value
$592.91
PnL
-$7.96
Record
57%
70-52 (122)
Invested
$69.15
Value
$78.56
PnL
+$6.96
Record
23%
174-599 (773)
Invested
$45.92
Value
$48.15
PnL
+$1.67
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$37.5
Value
$38.75
PnL
+$1.25
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$34.85
Value
$34.44
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$33.35
Value
$32.2
PnL
-$0.77
Record
34%
147-291 (438)
Invested
$8.5
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
20%
113-461 (574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.