Kobe: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Hikaru Shiraishi

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Hikaru Shiraishi (25%) · Hikaru Shiraishi at 65¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 22

Yusuke Kusuhara36¢Hikaru Shiraishi64¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hikaru Shiraishi

Consensus Traders

Hikaru Shiraishi 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$500.87

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 64.5¢

-11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralHikaru Shiraishi at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hikaru Shiraishi

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yusuke Kusuhara36%

Hikaru Shiraishi65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hikaru Shiraishi3 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares7,125

Combined PnL-$598.23

Yusuke Kusuhara9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,895

Combined PnL+$97.36

Hikaru Shiraishi — 25%Yusuke Kusuhara — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
00 0000.	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 72.4¢	$4.7K	$4.2K	-$510.99	39% 18-28 (46)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 42.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$2.5	50% 1068-1058 (2126)
└ Hikaru Shiraishi leg	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 50¢	$525	$750.75	+$225.75
└ Yusuke Kusuhara leg	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 42.9¢	$665	$441.75	-$223.25
65 6512395314597884CTR	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 28¢	$560	$570	+$10	50% 4027-4028 (8055)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 27.5¢	$379.68	$393.01	+$13.33	45% 89-109 (198)
OM omnibus-076daa	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 72¢	$433.54	$346.23	-$87.31	46% 600-717 (1317)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 27.4¢	$393.32	$296.59	+$60.62	48% 3854-4218 (8072)
RN1CTR	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 27¢	$132.66	$140.03	+$7.37	54% 5936-5005 (10941)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 28¢	$124.6	$126.82	+$2.22	49% 4560-4822 (9382)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 27¢	$94.5	$99.75	+$5.25	53% 1805-1593 (3398)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 32¢	$79.88	$78.63	-$1.25	50% 2799-2804 (5603)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 32¢	$10.63	$10.46	-$0.17	56% 4142-3242 (7384)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 72¢	$9.99	$10.06	+$0.07	48% 210-228 (438)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.58	-$0.03	38% 1303-2129 (3432)

0000.

Hikaru Shiraishi

Invested

$4,709

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$510.99

Record

39%

18-28 (46)

NotJumpARB<$100

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$1,190

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$2.5

Record

50%

1068-1058 (2126)

Both legs:

Hikaru Shiraishi$52550¢+$225.75

Yusuke Kusuhara$66542.9¢-$223.25

6512395314597884CTR

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$560

Value

$570

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

4027-4028 (8055)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$379.68

Value

$393.01

PnL

+$13.33

Record

45%

89-109 (198)

omnibus-076daa

Hikaru Shiraishi

Invested

$433.54

Value

$346.23

PnL

-$87.31

Record

46%

600-717 (1317)

38791873984189CTR

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$393.32

Value

$296.59

PnL

+$60.62

Record

48%

3854-4218 (8072)

RN1CTR

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$132.66

Value

$140.03

PnL

+$7.37

Record

54%

5936-5005 (10941)

FlaznorpCTR

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$124.6

Value

$126.82

PnL

+$2.22

Record

49%

4560-4822 (9382)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$94.5

Value

$99.75

PnL

+$5.25

Record

53%

1805-1593 (3398)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$79.88

Value

$78.63

PnL

-$1.25

Record

50%

2799-2804 (5603)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$10.63

Value

$10.46

PnL

-$0.17

Record

56%

4142-3242 (7384)

glennyorkshire<$100

Hikaru Shiraishi

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10.06

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

210-228 (438)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

1303-2129 (3432)

Research grade

NeutralHikaru Shiraishi at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hikaru Shiraishi

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hikaru Shiraishi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.