Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Matt Kuhar, while the market favors Vladislav Melnic (61%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Drummondville: Matt Kuhar vs Vladislav Melnic

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Matt Kuhar (55%) · Matt Kuhar at 40¢ · $248 held · ends Nov 22

Matt Kuhar40¢Vladislav Melnic60¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Matt Kuhar

Consensus Traders

Matt Kuhar 55%

Total Value

$247.86

Combined PnL

$8.23

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 39.5¢

-19% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMatt Kuhar at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Matt Kuhar

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Vladislav Melnic 61%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Matt Kuhar40%

Vladislav Melnic61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Matt Kuhar6 traders

Total Value$154.76

Total Shares284

Combined PnL+$8.07

Vladislav Melnic5 traders

Total Value$92.85

Total Shares172

Combined PnL+$0.16

Matt Kuhar — 55%Vladislav Melnic — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Matt Kuharavg 60¢	$70.01	$68.2	+$2.4	53% 1960-1712 (3672)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Vladislav Melnicavg 59.4¢	$41.21	$42.7	+$1.49	47% 380-423 (803)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Matt Kuharavg 40¢	$38.02	$38.5	+$0.48	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Matt Kuharavg 44¢	$21.99	$26.85	+$4.86	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Vladislav Melnicavg 60.2¢	$21.97	$19.54	-$2.43	49% 2881-2944 (5825)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Vladislav Melnicavg 35¢	$12.25	$13.3	+$1.05	48% 495-537 (1032)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Matt Kuharavg 41¢	$12.28	$13.03	+$0.75	38% 1404-2275 (3679)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Vladislav Melnicavg 54.5¢	$11.14	$11.14	-$0	48% 646-702 (1348)
BA babybells<$100	Vladislav Melnicavg 59¢	$6.12	$6.17	+$0.05	35% 282-530 (812)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Matt Kuharavg 61¢	$4.69	$4.77	+$0.08	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Matt Kuharavg 39.4¢	$3.9	$3.42	-$0.49	53% 228-200 (428)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Matt Kuhar

Invested

$70.01

Value

$68.2

PnL

+$2.4

Record

53%

1960-1712 (3672)

thirdt1me<$100

Vladislav Melnic

Invested

$41.21

Value

$42.7

PnL

+$1.49

Record

47%

380-423 (803)

LimousinCTR<$100

Matt Kuhar

Invested

$38.02

Value

$38.5

PnL

+$0.48

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Matt Kuhar

Invested

$21.99

Value

$26.85

PnL

+$4.86

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Vladislav Melnic

Invested

$21.97

Value

$19.54

PnL

-$2.43

Record

49%

2881-2944 (5825)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Vladislav Melnic

Invested

$12.25

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$1.05

Record

48%

495-537 (1032)

VenusianCTR<$100

Matt Kuhar

Invested

$12.28

Value

$13.03

PnL

+$0.75

Record

38%

1404-2275 (3679)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Vladislav Melnic

Invested

$11.14

Value

$11.14

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

646-702 (1348)

babybells<$100

Vladislav Melnic

Invested

$6.12

Value

$6.17

PnL

+$0.05

Record

35%

282-530 (812)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Matt Kuhar

Invested

$4.69

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Matt Kuhar

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$0.49

Record

53%

228-200 (428)

Research grade

NeutralMatt Kuhar at 40%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Matt Kuhar

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Vladislav Melnic 61%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Matt Kuhar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.