Sydney: Jason Kubler vs Stefan Vujic

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Jason Kubler (63%) · Jason Kubler at 90¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 21

Jason Kubler90¢Stefan Vujic10¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jason Kubler

Consensus Traders

Jason Kubler 63%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

-$59.83

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 89.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralJason Kubler at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jason Kubler

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jason Kubler90%

Stefan Vujic11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jason Kubler10 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares6,260

Combined PnL+$32.46

Stefan Vujic6 traders

Total Value$734.96

Total Shares6,726

Combined PnL-$92.29

Jason Kubler — 63%Stefan Vujic — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Jason Kubler. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrStefan Vujic 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Stefan Vujic 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Jason Kubleravg 89¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$25.4	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Stefan Vujicavg 11.3¢	$678.51	$628.11	-$50.4	46% 526-624 (1150)
VE Venusian	Jason Kubleravg 88.2¢	$351.27	$356.46	+$5.19	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
38 38791873984189	Jason Kubleravg 89¢	$245.01	$243.48	-$1.53	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
BA babybells	Jason Kubleravg 89¢	$178	$179	+$1	31% 219-484 (703)
EF efntrick	Jason Kubleravg 79¢	$104.25	$108.63	+$4.38	45% 96-115 (211)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Stefan Vujicavg 20.4¢	$100.85	$54.32	-$46.53	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Jason Kubleravg 78.6¢	$32.81	$31.71	-$1.1	62% 227-140 (367)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Stefan Vujicavg 22.4¢	$26.62	$27.95	+$1.33	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Jason Kubleravg 82¢	$20	$19.02	-$0.98	45% 177-217 (394)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Stefan Vujicavg 18.6¢	$10.65	$13.71	+$3.06	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Jason Kubleravg 77¢	$8.47	$8.42	-$0.05	39% 593-921 (1514)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Jason Kubleravg 75¢	$7.5	$7.65	+$0.15	34% 224-438 (662)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Stefan Vujicavg 24¢	$5.54	$5.54	+$0	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Stefan Vujicavg 10¢	$5.08	$5.34	+$0.25	48% 547-581 (1128)
SU suntori<$100	Jason Kubleravg 80¢	$1.04	$1.03	-$0.01	46% 2852-3388 (6240)

RN1

Jason Kubler

Invested

$4,636.34

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$25.4

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Stefan Vujic

Invested

$678.51

Value

$628.11

PnL

-$50.4

Record

46%

526-624 (1150)

Venusian

Jason Kubler

Invested

$351.27

Value

$356.46

PnL

+$5.19

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

38791873984189

Jason Kubler

Invested

$245.01

Value

$243.48

PnL

-$1.53

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

babybells

Jason Kubler

Invested

$178

Value

$179

PnL

+$1

Record

31%

219-484 (703)

efntrick

Jason Kubler

Invested

$104.25

Value

$108.63

PnL

+$4.38

Record

45%

96-115 (211)

FlaznorpCTR

Stefan Vujic

Invested

$100.85

Value

$54.32

PnL

-$46.53

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

thatsabing0<$100

Jason Kubler

Invested

$32.81

Value

$31.71

PnL

-$1.1

Record

62%

227-140 (367)

LimousinCTR<$100

Stefan Vujic

Invested

$26.62

Value

$27.95

PnL

+$1.33

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

glennyorkshire<$100

Jason Kubler

Invested

$20

Value

$19.02

PnL

-$0.98

Record

45%

177-217 (394)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Stefan Vujic

Invested

$10.65

Value

$13.71

PnL

+$3.06

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Jason Kubler

Invested

$8.47

Value

$8.42

PnL

-$0.05

Record

39%

593-921 (1514)

thestingsnake<$100

Jason Kubler

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$0.15

Record

34%

224-438 (662)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Stefan Vujic

Invested

$5.54

Value

$5.54

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Stefan Vujic

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

547-581 (1128)

suntori<$100

Jason Kubler

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

Research grade

NeutralJason Kubler at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jason Kubler

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Jason Kubler. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrStefan Vujic 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Stefan Vujic 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jason Kubler wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.