Sydney: Jason Kubler vs Chase Ferguson

13 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Jason Kubler (65%) · Jason Kubler at 95¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 22

Jason Kubler95¢Chase Ferguson5¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jason Kubler

Consensus Traders

Jason Kubler 65%

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

-$70.51

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 94.5¢

+1% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralJason Kubler at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jason Kubler

13 of 20 top traders (65%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jason Kubler95%

Chase Ferguson6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jason Kubler13 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares13,869

Combined PnL+$61.85

Chase Ferguson7 traders

Total Value$856.24

Total Shares14,842

Combined PnL-$132.36

Jason Kubler — 65%Chase Ferguson — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thirdt1me	Jason Kubleravg 93.9¢	$6.1K	$6.1K	+$36.07	47% 387-434 (821)
RN1	Jason Kubleravg 94¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	+$26.1	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Jason Kubleravg 91¢	$819.12	$805.62	-$13.49	48% 653-716 (1369)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Chase Fergusonavg 6¢	$761.44	$697.28	-$64.16	47% 691-793 (1484)
NO NotJump	Jason Kubleravg 94¢	$658.55	$662.05	+$3.5	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
BA babybells	Jason Kubleravg 89¢	$178	$179	+$1	34% 285-542 (827)
TH thestingsnake	Jason Kubleravg 90.3¢	$136.32	$126.18	-$1.02	37% 273-462 (735)
FL Flaznorp	Jason Kubleravg 83.8¢	$115.6	$124.88	+$9.28	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Chase Fergusonavg 9.4¢	$175	$102.47	-$72.53	31% 15-34 (49)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Jason Kubleravg 89¢	$52.19	$52.51	+$0.32	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jason Kubleravg 81¢	$36.87	$36.07	-$0.8	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Chase Fergusonavg 16¢	$21.28	$25.27	+$3.99	47% 536-593 (1129)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Chase Fergusonavg 19¢	$17.9	$17.9	+$0	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100	Chase Fergusonavg 18¢	$11.23	$11.54	+$0.31	41% 137-197 (334)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Jason Kubleravg 79¢	$9.99	$10.25	+$0.25	47% 241-270 (511)
VeryLucky888<$100	Jason Kubleravg 78¢	$6.17	$6.21	+$0.04	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Jason Kubleravg 82¢	$4.1	$4.73	+$0.63	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
VE Venusian<$100	Jason Kubleravg 92¢	$4.6	$4.58	-$0.02	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Chase Fergusonavg 20¢	$1.25	$1.31	+$0.06	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Chase Fergusonavg 10¢	$0.5	$0.48	-$0.03	38% 1433-2333 (3766)

thirdt1me

Jason Kubler

Invested

$6,064.12

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$36.07

Record

47%

387-434 (821)

RN1

Jason Kubler

Invested

$4,906.8

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$26.1

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

CandleHammerDrums

Jason Kubler

Invested

$819.12

Value

$805.62

PnL

-$13.49

Record

48%

653-716 (1369)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Chase Ferguson

Invested

$761.44

Value

$697.28

PnL

-$64.16

Record

47%

691-793 (1484)

NotJump

Jason Kubler

Invested

$658.55

Value

$662.05

PnL

+$3.5

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

babybells

Jason Kubler

Invested

$178

Value

$179

PnL

+$1

Record

34%

285-542 (827)

thestingsnake

Jason Kubler

Invested

$136.32

Value

$126.18

PnL

-$1.02

Record

37%

273-462 (735)

Flaznorp

Jason Kubler

Invested

$115.6

Value

$124.88

PnL

+$9.28

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Chase Ferguson

Invested

$175

Value

$102.47

PnL

-$72.53

Record

31%

15-34 (49)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Jason Kubler

Invested

$52.19

Value

$52.51

PnL

+$0.32

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

Pan9X<$100

Jason Kubler

Invested

$36.87

Value

$36.07

PnL

-$0.8

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Chase Ferguson

Invested

$21.28

Value

$25.27

PnL

+$3.99

Record

47%

536-593 (1129)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Chase Ferguson

Invested

$17.9

Value

$17.9

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

1lovejumpCTR<$100

Chase Ferguson

Invested

$11.23

Value

$11.54

PnL

+$0.31

Record

41%

137-197 (334)

glennyorkshire<$100

Jason Kubler

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

47%

241-270 (511)

VeryLucky888<$100

Jason Kubler

Invested

$6.17

Value

$6.21

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

ferdinand2<$100

Jason Kubler

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.63

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

Venusian<$100

Jason Kubler

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$0.02

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Chase Ferguson

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

LimousinCTR<$100

Chase Ferguson

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

Research grade

NeutralJason Kubler at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jason Kubler

13 of 20 top traders (65%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jason Kubler wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.