Knoxville: Mitchell Krueger vs Samir Banerjee

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Mitchell Krueger (40%) · Mitchell Krueger at 68¢ · $471 held · ends Nov 15

Mitchell Krueger68¢Samir Banerjee32¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mitchell Krueger

Consensus Traders

Mitchell Krueger 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$471.41

Combined PnL

$79.77

Smart Money Entry

42.7¢ → 68¢

+59% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMitchell Krueger at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mitchell Krueger

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mitchell Krueger68%

Samir Banerjee32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mitchell Krueger4 traders

Total Value$317.11

Total Shares494

Combined PnL+$84.78

Samir Banerjee6 traders

Total Value$51.6

Total Shares120

Combined PnL-$5.01

Mitchell Krueger — 40%Samir Banerjee — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Mitchell Kruegeravg 39¢	$142.75	$215.59	+$72.84	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Mitchell Kruegeravg 55.5¢	$99.99	$102.45	+$2.46	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
└ Mitchell Krueger leg	Mitchell Kruegeravg 55.5¢	$79.74	$80.45	+$0.71
└ Samir Banerjee leg	Samir Banerjeeavg 40.5¢	$20.25	$22	+$1.75
FL Flaznorp<$100	Mitchell Kruegeravg 44¢	$54.26	$69.97	+$15.71	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Samir Banerjeeavg 47.3¢	$28.8	$25.94	-$2.86	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Mitchell Kruegeravg 75.4¢	$22.62	$18.75	-$3.87	57% 20229-15050 (35279)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Samir Banerjeeavg 47¢	$16.18	$14.67	-$1.51	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
LI LightParadox<$100	Mitchell Kruegeravg 56¢	$12.7	$12.81	+$0.11	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
TRCMCTR<$100	Samir Banerjeeavg 52¢	$5.2	$3.75	-$1.45	55% 4121-3322 (7443)
RN1CTR<$100	Samir Banerjeeavg 25¢	$1.65	$2.9	+$1.25	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Samir Banerjeeavg 49¢	$2.4	$2.18	-$0.23	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Samir Banerjeeavg 49¢	$2.4	$2.18	-$0.23	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

ferrariChampions2026

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$142.75

Value

$215.59

PnL

+$72.84

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$99.99

Value

$102.45

PnL

+$2.46

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

Both legs:

Mitchell Krueger$79.7455.5¢+$0.71

Samir Banerjee$20.2540.5¢+$1.75

Flaznorp<$100

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$54.26

Value

$69.97

PnL

+$15.71

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Samir Banerjee

Invested

$28.8

Value

$25.94

PnL

-$2.86

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

BillBenter2026<$100

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$22.62

Value

$18.75

PnL

-$3.87

Record

57%

20229-15050 (35279)

VenusianCTR<$100

Samir Banerjee

Invested

$16.18

Value

$14.67

PnL

-$1.51

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

LightParadox<$100

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$12.7

Value

$12.81

PnL

+$0.11

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

TRCMCTR<$100

Samir Banerjee

Invested

$5.2

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$1.45

Record

55%

4121-3322 (7443)

RN1CTR<$100

Samir Banerjee

Invested

$1.65

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

sentrioCTR<$100

Samir Banerjee

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Samir Banerjee

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.23

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

NeutralMitchell Krueger at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mitchell Krueger

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mitchell Krueger wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.