Knoxville: Stefan Kozlov vs Braden Shick

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Stefan Kozlov (46%) · Stefan Kozlov at 73¢ · $975 held · ends Nov 19

Stefan Kozlov73¢Braden Shick27¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Stefan Kozlov

Consensus Traders

Stefan Kozlov 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$974.74

Combined PnL

$8.41

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 72.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralStefan Kozlov at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Stefan Kozlov

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Stefan Kozlov73%

Braden Shick28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Stefan Kozlov6 traders

Total Value$448.67

Total Shares648

Combined PnL+$1.84

Braden Shick7 traders

Total Value$377.85

Total Shares1,214

Combined PnL+$6.57

Stefan Kozlov — 46%Braden Shick — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Stefan Kozlov. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Stefan Kozlov) and the top 1000 (8 on Braden Shick) disagree here.

ctrBraden Shick 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedStefan Kozlov 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Braden Shick 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Stefan Kozlovavg 67.9¢	$390.15	$246.66	+$2.52	52% 773-714 (1487)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Braden Shickavg 32¢	$202.9	$209.24	+$6.34	33% 553-1135 (1688)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 72¢	$146.62	$148.22	+$1.6	56% 3902-3070 (6972)
└ Stefan Kozlov leg	Stefan Kozlovavg 72¢	$91.06	$91.7	+$0.63
└ Braden Shick leg	Braden Shickavg 27¢	$55.55	$56.53	+$0.97
TH thirdt1me	Stefan Kozlovavg 72¢	$144	$143	-$1	45% 158-195 (353)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Braden Shickavg 28¢	$87.01	$85.46	-$1.55	32% 534-1112 (1646)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Braden Shickavg 32¢	$38.29	$39.48	+$1.2	32% 538-1128 (1666)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Braden Shickavg 27¢	$27.04	$27.54	+$0.5	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
PA Pan9X<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 68¢	$22.44	$22.44	+$0	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
EF efntrick<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 67¢	$15.04	$15.26	+$0.22	43% 66-89 (155)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 72¢	$14.4	$14.5	+$0.1	83% 384-80 (464)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Braden Shickavg 33¢	$10	$9.7	-$0.3	45% 100-123 (223)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 68¢	$6.8	$6.8	+$0	38% 492-810 (1302)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Braden Shickavg 31¢	$4.49	$4.78	+$0.29	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Braden Shickavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.65	+$0.1	41% 552-797 (1349)

VeryLucky888

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$390.15

Value

$246.66

PnL

+$2.52

Record

52%

773-714 (1487)

LightParadoxCTR

Braden Shick

Invested

$202.9

Value

$209.24

PnL

+$6.34

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$146.62

Value

$148.22

PnL

+$1.6

Record

56%

3902-3070 (6972)

Both legs:

Stefan Kozlov$91.0672¢+$0.63

Braden Shick$55.5527¢+$0.97

thirdt1me

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$144

Value

$143

PnL

-$1

Record

45%

158-195 (353)

LimousinCTR<$100

Braden Shick

Invested

$87.01

Value

$85.46

PnL

-$1.55

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

VenusianCTR<$100

Braden Shick

Invested

$38.29

Value

$39.48

PnL

+$1.2

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Braden Shick

Invested

$27.04

Value

$27.54

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

Pan9X<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$22.44

Value

$22.44

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

efntrick<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$15.04

Value

$15.26

PnL

+$0.22

Record

43%

66-89 (155)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

83%

384-80 (464)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Braden Shick

Invested

$10

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

45%

100-123 (223)

ameisgoat11<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

492-810 (1302)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Braden Shick

Invested

$4.49

Value

$4.78

PnL

+$0.29

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

sentrioCTR<$100

Braden Shick

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.1

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

Research grade

NeutralStefan Kozlov at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Stefan Kozlov

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Stefan Kozlov. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Stefan Kozlov) and the top 1000 (8 on Braden Shick) disagree here.

ctrBraden Shick 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedStefan Kozlov 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Braden Shick 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Stefan Kozlov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.