Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Aidan Mayo, while the market favors Stefan Kozlov (64%). 13 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Charlottesville: Stefan Kozlov vs Aidan Mayo

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Aidan Mayo (68%) · Aidan Mayo at 36¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 15

Stefan Kozlov64¢Aidan Mayo36¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aidan Mayo

Consensus Traders

Aidan Mayo 68%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

-$121.79

Smart Money Entry

42.9¢ → 36¢

-16% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralAidan Mayo at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aidan Mayo

13 of 19 top traders (68%)Underdog side (market favors Stefan Kozlov 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Stefan Kozlov64%

Aidan Mayo36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aidan Mayo13 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares18,068

Combined PnL-$281.14

Stefan Kozlov6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,774

Combined PnL+$159.35

Aidan Mayo — 68%Stefan Kozlov — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Aidan Mayo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAidan Mayo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrAidan Mayo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedAidan Mayo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Aidan Mayo 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeCTR	Aidan Mayoavg 36.1¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$20.55	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
38 38791873984189	Stefan Kozlovavg 62¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$71.42	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
VeryLucky888CTR	Aidan Mayoavg 61¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$91.97	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
LI LimousinCTR	Aidan Mayoavg 37.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$52.72	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 64.8¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$24.95	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ Stefan Kozlov leg	Stefan Kozlovavg 64.8¢	$794.15	$765.63	-$28.52
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 37¢	$264.55	$268.13	+$3.58
0xheavy888CTR	Aidan Mayoavg 61¢	$813.73	$820.4	+$6.67	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Aidan Mayoavg 34.4¢	$516	$532.5	+$16.5	60% 4593-3091 (7684)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Aidan Mayoavg 38¢	$489.92	$457.69	-$32.23	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
RN1	Stefan Kozlovavg 52.8¢	$368.79	$450.47	+$81.68	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Aidan Mayoavg 44¢	$445.86	$366.45	-$79.41	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
EU EulhunterCTR	Aidan Mayoavg 38.2¢	$277.27	$257.63	-$19.64	53% 6776-5929 (12705)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 40¢	$106.63	$144.27	+$37.64	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
└ Stefan Kozlov leg	Stefan Kozlovavg 40¢	$65.93	$103.02	+$37.09
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 37¢	$40.7	$41.25	+$0.55
EF efntrickCTR	Aidan Mayoavg 60.7¢	$109.2	$110.7	+$1.5	49% 3711-3940 (7651)
SE sentrioCTR	Aidan Mayoavg 61¢	$163.37	$100.47	+$0.82	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 39.3¢	$91.37	$82.84	-$8.53	53% 848-749 (1597)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 63¢	$79.96	$79.06	-$0.9	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 37¢	$68.08	$65.32	-$2.76	55% 3880-3232 (7112)
PA Pan9XCTR	Aidan Mayoavg 60.3¢	$111	$64.82	+$1.2	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
machinelearned<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 48.2¢	$51.2	$57.5	+$6.3	54% 10221-8698 (18919)
PA pauleta23<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 66¢	$16.45	$15.58	-$0.87	65% 25410-13589 (38999)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 49¢	$5.42	$7.13	+$1.71	50% 23433-23429 (46862)

MadridTimeCTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$2,055.44

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$20.55

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

38791873984189

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$1,771.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$71.42

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

VeryLucky888CTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$1,602.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$91.97

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

LimousinCTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$1,195.32

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$52.72

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$1,058.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$24.95

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

Stefan Kozlov$794.1564.8¢-$28.52

Aidan Mayo$264.5537¢+$3.58

0xheavy888CTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$813.73

Value

$820.4

PnL

+$6.67

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

thestingsnakeCTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$516

Value

$532.5

PnL

+$16.5

Record

60%

4593-3091 (7684)

LightParadoxCTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$489.92

Value

$457.69

PnL

-$32.23

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

RN1

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$368.79

Value

$450.47

PnL

+$81.68

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$445.86

Value

$366.45

PnL

-$79.41

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

EulhunterCTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$277.27

Value

$257.63

PnL

-$19.64

Record

53%

6776-5929 (12705)

VenusianARB<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$106.63

Value

$144.27

PnL

+$37.64

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Both legs:

Stefan Kozlov$65.9340¢+$37.09

Aidan Mayo$40.737¢+$0.55

efntrickCTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$109.2

Value

$110.7

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

3711-3940 (7651)

sentrioCTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$163.37

Value

$100.47

PnL

+$0.82

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

1lovejumpCTR<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$91.37

Value

$82.84

PnL

-$8.53

Record

53%

848-749 (1597)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$79.96

Value

$79.06

PnL

-$0.9

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$68.08

Value

$65.32

PnL

-$2.76

Record

55%

3880-3232 (7112)

Pan9XCTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$111

Value

$64.82

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

machinelearned<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$51.2

Value

$57.5

PnL

+$6.3

Record

54%

10221-8698 (18919)

pauleta23<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$16.45

Value

$15.58

PnL

-$0.87

Record

65%

25410-13589 (38999)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$5.42

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$1.71

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Research grade

NeutralAidan Mayo at 36%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Aidan Mayo

13 of 19 top traders (68%)Underdog side (market favors Stefan Kozlov 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Aidan Mayo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAidan Mayo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrAidan Mayo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedAidan Mayo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Aidan Mayo 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aidan Mayo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.